The Most Dangerous Moment: A Debate on America’s Role in the Pacific | Uncommon Knowledge | Peter Robinson | Hoover Institution
Dec 5, 2023
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Dan Blumenthal, director of Asian studies at the American Enterprise Institute, and Elbridge Colby, founder of the Marathon Initiative think tank, discuss deterring China's expansion in the South China Sea and aggression towards Taiwan. They explore the potential consequences of China's dominance in the Pacific, military and economic coercion, relying on allies, parallels between the Cold War and US-China relations, and the challenges faced by the United States in navigating its role in the world.
China's increasing naval strength poses a threat to global power dynamics and the United States' influence in East Asia.
If China achieves its goals, it would lead to a more authoritarian world with limited freedoms and economic challenges for the United States.
China's President Xi Jinping aims to dominate global politics and reshape the world order through military coercion and economic control.
Deep dives
China's growing naval power
China's Navy is expected to have 400 ships by 2025, while the United States Navy is shrinking in numbers. This raises concerns about China's increasing naval strength and the potential implications for global power dynamics.
Consequences of China's dominance
If China were to attain its goals, the world would become more authoritarian and dictatorial, with limited freedoms. The economic arrangements in East Asia would be locked out for the United States, causing both economic and military challenges. Americans would feel poorer and less free, with economic control and decisions shifting to Beijing.
Xi Jinping's grand ambitions
China's President Xi Jinping aims to dominate global politics and establish hegemony over Asia. His vision for the 'great rejuvenation' of China involves maintaining a hegemonic position, exerting control over the largest economic area, and challenging the United States. China's military coercion and economic control strategy are part of Xi's broader ambition to reshape the world order.
The Importance of Defense Preparedness
The podcast episode highlights the urgent need for the United States to prioritize defense preparedness in the face of increasing threats from China, Russia, and Iran. The speakers emphasize that the current military situation is inadequate and that the US needs to allocate more resources to strengthen its capabilities. They argue that the US should not underestimate the importance of a robust military and assert that a strong defense is crucial to maintaining security and deterring potential adversaries. The episode also stresses the need to address the issue of Taiwan, as China poses a significant threat to Taiwan's independence.
The Challenge of Resourcing Defense Strategy
The podcast episode discusses the challenge of effectively resourcing defense strategy in a complex geopolitical landscape. It acknowledges that simply advocating for increased defense spending is not sufficient. The speakers recognize the economic constraints and the need to allocate resources wisely. They contend that a comprehensive strategy is required, combining hard power capabilities with diplomatic efforts to address vulnerabilities in China. The episode concludes with a call for American politicians to grapple with the realities of the situation and make strategic decisions that align with the best interests of the country and its allies.
In this wide-ranging conversation, Colby and Blumenthal discuss what the United States and its allies can do practically to deter China’s expansion in the South China Sea and its aggression toward Taiwan.
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