Jim Bianco, President and macro strategist at Bianco Research, joins the podcast to discuss his bearish outlook on bonds and the threat to interest rate observation. They also explore the rise of private credit as a replacement for traditional bank lending, the potential for a bond bear market, and the global concerns surrounding the US public debt.
The 40-year bull market in bonds came to an end in 2020, signaling the start of a bear market with rising interest rates.
The concentration of market gains in a few stocks raises concerns about market breadth and the relevance of stock picking in a post-COVID economy.
Deep dives
Jim Bianco predicts the end of the 40-year bull market in bonds and a transition to a multi-year bear market
Jim Bianco, a renowned expert in the bond market, suggests that the 40-year bull market in bonds came to an end in 2020, marking the start of a multi-year bear market. While there may be short-term rallies along the way, Bianco anticipates that interest rates will continue to rise. He believes that the current level of interest rates is not yet high enough to trigger a significant economic downturn, and that rates could go even higher in the future. Bianco emphasizes that the average interest rates before the QE period were similar to the rates we are seeing now, and he argues that we are simply returning to a more normal state rather than experiencing a new normal.
The potential danger of a financial crisis in the banking industry
Bianco suggests that the banking industry, particularly smaller banks, could be facing a significant challenge in the current economic climate. With low interest rates and the rise of remote work impacting office real estate, regional and small banks are struggling with mortgages on half-empty buildings. Additionally, Bianco highlights the issue of deposit outflows from banks, as individuals seek higher yielding options like money market accounts. These challenges in the banking sector, combined with the potential for interest rates to continue rising, could pose a risk to the overall economy. However, Bianco believes that this issue has not yet reached the point where it could lead to a major financial crisis.
The implications of concentrated stock market gains and the return of stock picking
Bianco draws attention to the concentration of market gains in a small number of stocks, with the top seven stocks accounting for a significant portion of the S&P 500's overall gains. This concentration raises questions about market breadth and the significance of stock picking in the current environment. Bianco speculates that we may be entering a post-COVID economy where specific winners and losers emerge, rather than general winners and losers. He suggests that the era of index buying may be transitioning to a period where stock picking becomes more relevant. However, he cautions that not all investors may be prepared for this shift, as stock picking requires a different skill set than passive investing.
Predictions on the tempo of rising interest rates and potential implications on financial markets
Bianco expects interest rates to continue rising, with a potential overshoot before settling at what he considers to be fair value. He suggests that the current stock-bond correlation, which indicates an inflationary environment, is driving concerns about supply and its impact on the bond market. Higher rates are likely to have consequences for the financial system, particularly for banks, which could face difficulties related to unrealized losses on fixed income securities. Additionally, Bianco discusses the prospect of the United States facing credit sensitivity, as its public debt continues to grow. While he believes that the US still benefits from its reserve currency status, he acknowledges the possibility of a future shift if an alternative digital currency emerges. The US government may need to address concerns about its financial condition due to inflation and excessive money printing, a shift that could have significant implications for financial markets.