In a lively discussion, Adam Seessel, founder of Gravity Capital Management and author, shares insights from his extensive investment career. He delves into intrinsic value's role in evaluating Big Tech, providing updated perspectives on Alphabet and Amazon post his 2022 book. Adam also reveals how to navigate the AI wave while avoiding inflated valuations. He highlights Progressive Insurance's successful strategies in the auto market, emphasizing the importance of adapting traditional principles to current tech-driven dynamics.
Adam Ziesel emphasizes a strategic shift from traditional value investing to 'Value 3.0' to adapt to the digital economy.
The concept of intrinsic value remains crucial in investments, though investors should balance it with market dynamics to avoid significant losses.
Ziesel highlights the dominance of technology companies in the market, advocating for investments in established giants like Alphabet and Amazon to exploit emerging trends.
Deep dives
The Transition to Value 3.0
Adam Ziesel discusses his evolution in investment strategy from traditional value investing to what he terms 'Value 3.0'. After a decade of successful investing using classic value methods, he faced diminishing returns as market dynamics shifted. Realizing that old-school methods were ill-suited for a digital economy, he adapted by focusing on high-quality businesses with growth potential, particularly in technology. This strategic pivot, detailed in his book 'Where the Money Is', allowed him to outperform the S&P 500 by aligning with the realities of a changing market landscape.
Understanding Intrinsic Value
Ziesel emphasizes the importance of intrinsic value as a guiding principle in investing, even though it's ultimately a mental construct. He argues that while intrinsic value is conceptually sound, it's crucial not to overly rely on it since market realities can diverge widely from theoretical valuations. He recounts a personal investment in Avon Products as a cautionary tale, highlighting how adhering rigidly to perceived intrinsic value led to significant losses. This experience reinforced his belief that investors should balance theory with the fluid nature of the market.
Disruption in the Market and the Role of Big Tech
A substantial portion of market value creation over the past two decades has stemmed from technology, reshaping traditional sectors. Ziesel shares insights revealing that technology companies now account for nearly half of the U.S. stock market value, illustrating the economic influence of this sector. He asserts that successful investing should focus on established tech giants because they are well-positioned to capitalize on emerging trends like AI and cloud computing. By investing in these major players, investors can leverage innovations and disruptions in the tech landscape.
The Competitive Landscape: Alphabet vs. Amazon
Ziesel provides updated insights into Alphabet and Amazon, asserting that both companies possess formidable business models that continue to thrive. Alphabet is lauded for its dominant position in search and advertising, which has proven resilient even against competitive entries like Bing. Meanwhile, Amazon's vast infrastructure and services, particularly in e-commerce and cloud, have solidified their market leadership. These companies illustrate the value of investing in strong and adaptable businesses capable of navigating evolving market dynamics.
Progressive's Strategic Advantage in Insurance
Ziesel highlights Progressive's innovative use of technology as a key driver of its success in the competitive auto insurance space. Unlike Geico, which has maintained a lower cost structure but failed to adapt technologically, Progressive has used data analytics to effectively match risk with pricing. This strategic advantage has allowed Progressive to capture significant market share amidst industry challenges. Ziesel views Progressive as an example of how technology can disrupt traditional industries and lead to superior investment outcomes.
On today’s episode, Clay is joined by Adam Seessel to discuss the developments of Big Tech over the past couple of years. Adam is an investor in Alphabet and Amazon, and in this discussion, he shares his updated thoughts on the two since he published his book, Where the Money Is, back in 2022.
Adam began his investing career doing research for Sanford C. Bernstein, Baron Capital, and Davis Selected Advisors. After these stints, he started his own firm, Gravity Capital Management. Since beginning a track record in the mid-2000’s he’s beaten the S&P 500. He’s been a contributor for financial writing in Barron’s and Fortune.
IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:
00:00 - Intro
01:47 - Adam’s key realizations as a value investor over the past 20+ years.
13:36 - How the concept of intrinsic value can help anchor us in reality even though it’s just a mental model we use to evaluate businesses.
27:37 - Adam’s updated views on Alphabet and Amazon since he published his book in 2022.
47:40 - Adam’s approach to taking advantage of the AI wave without paying hefty valuations.
54:01 - Why Progressive Insurance is dominating the auto insurance space.
And so much more!
Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.
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