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Will there be an election upset on Thursday?
Jul 3, 2024
Chief political correspondent Katy Balls and Chief research officer at Focaldata, James Kanagasooriam, discuss potential election upsets and uncertainties in the upcoming general election. Topics include polling trends, campaign themes, influence of Boris Johnson, voter behavior, party performance, impact of smaller parties, and innovative campaign tactics like social media and targeting religious groups.
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Quick takeaways
- Potential election outcome scenarios include a drastic shift in Conservative Party performance and uncertainty surrounding SNP in Scotland.
- Campaign strategies are evolving, emphasizing sectoral appeal and complex voter identity targeting across different constituencies.
Deep dives
Election Forecast Scenarios
The podcast discusses three potential election outcome scenarios based on recent polls. The first scenario presents an apocalyptic prediction where the Conservative Party competes with the Liberal Democrats for second and third place. The second scenario, including forecasts from various firms, anticipates a poor election outcome for the Conservatives with around 110 seats, a significant drop from 370. The third scenario, a lesser-discussed option, suggests a swing towards uncertain territories, approximating the 1997 election outcome.
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