MARKETS DAILY: Crypto Update | Why Bitcoin May Fall to $52K
Apr 18, 2024
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Markus Thielen from 10x Research predicts a $52K Bitcoin bottom, discusses Bitcoin halving impact, macroeconomic drivers, and Bitcoin's role as a hedge. Exploring ETF influence, tech stock sales, and altcoin trading sentiment in a bearish market environment.
Bitcoin's market lacks usual drivers, including ETF inflows, leading to a potential price decrease.
Upcoming halving event may not be bullish due to decreased miner revenues and lack of supply-demand imbalances.
Deep dives
Bitcoin's Lack of Upside Drivers and Market Weakness
The main view presented is that Bitcoin lacks the usual drivers that led to its previous price surges, particularly focusing on the decrease in ETF inflows over recent weeks. This declining trend in ETF inflows is linked to higher inflation, impacting Bitcoin's market performance. The shift in market internals shows weakened funding rates, indicating a broader market weakness alongside the diminishing ETF flows, pointing to a current lack of significant upside drivers.
Halving's Impact and Market Correction Predictions
The discussion addresses the upcoming halving event's impact on Bitcoin price and market dynamics. Contrary to traditional expectations, the impending halving is not viewed as a bullish event due to factors like decreased revenues for miners post-halving and the absence of substantial supply-demand imbalances. Expectations point to a significant market correction, with potential Bitcoin prices forecasted to reach the mid-50,000 range as the market braces for a period of consolidation amid changing macroeconomic conditions.
Bitcoin as a Macro Hedge and Market Speculation Dynamics
The conversation delves into Bitcoin's role as a macro hedge amidst evolving macroeconomic factors, highlighting its relation to money printing and inflation. Observations indicate that Bitcoin's market behavior during geopolitical events challenges its status as a safety asset, raising questions about investors' approaches to trading Bitcoin as a hedge. The interplay between ETF flows, market reactions to economic data releases, and investor sentiment underscores a complex market landscape where speculation and risk asset trading dynamics influence Bitcoin's performance.
The latest price moves and insights with Helene Braun and 10x Research co-founder Markus Thielen.
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On "Markets Daily," 10x Research co-founder Markus Thielen discusses his latest research report ahead of the bitcoin halving. Plus, he looks into his crystal ball and predicts how low the price of bitcoin (BTC) will fall.
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This episode was hosted by Helene Braun. “Markets Daily” is produced by executive producer Jared Schwartz and edited by Victor Chen, alongside Senior Booker, Melissa Montañez—all original music by Doc Blust and Colin Mealey.