The Derivative

Is Trend Following Dead? (Again…) A Deep Dive with Crabel’s Grant Jaffarian

12 snips
May 29, 2025
Grant Jaffarian, a seasoned Portfolio Manager at Crabel Capital Management with 30 years of experience, shares his insights on trend following strategies. He discusses the recent decline in performance, the challenges posed by high-frequency trading, and the necessity for innovation. Jaffarian analyzes the evolving landscape of trend following, including diminishing Sharpe ratios and adapting to market dynamics. The conversation even touches on quantum mechanics, making it a mix of finance and science while maintaining an optimistic outlook on trend following's future.
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ANECDOTE

Grant's Trading Beginnings

  • Grant Jaffarian got his start as a runner on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange in high school.
  • His father was a notable trader at Chicago Research and Trading, deeply influencing his career path.
INSIGHT

Latency Matters for Trend Following

  • Speed matters in execution even for trades held days or weeks.
  • Latency impacts slippage and cost, affecting trend-following returns noticeably.
INSIGHT

Trend Following Challenges and Hope

  • Trend following has experienced tough stretches and max drawdowns recently.
  • Despite challenges, Grant remains optimistic about a recovery driven by market dynamics.
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