Cancer Detection (The Derby Mill Series ep 09)

Skin Analytics is a UK company using AI to automate the diagnosis of serious skin conditions, starting with skin cancer. Its core product, DERM, is the only Class III CE mark AI medical device for autonomous dermatology in the UK’s health system. Used on more than 150,000 real-world patients, DERM achieves 99.8% negative predictive value, outperforming dermatologists. The company is expanding into general dermatology and launching in the EU and US.

In the future, Skin Analytics intends to create a dermatology AI platform that is able to diagnose and treat a broader range of conditions. Based on a diverse sampling of low-cost data, the company intends its platform to transition from self-supervised to unsupervised learning, enabling ubiquitous, low-friction health monitoring.

This episode features the Intrepid team exploring such questions as:

* What would it take to build healthcare around AI abundance, not human bottlenecks?

* How might one frame an approach to reach 99% automation in dermatological triage?

* What are the tradeoffs between sensitivity, specificity, and health system efficiency?

* How could reward systems (RL or pathway-based optimization) be introduced?

* What’s the potential of self-supervised learning across multiple medical modalities?

GUESTS AND HOSTS

Neil Daly, founder and director, Skin AnalyticsJack Greenhalgh, AI director, Skin AnalyticsAjay Agrawal, co-founder and partner, Intrepid Growth PartnersRichard Sutton, senior advisor, Intrepid Growth Partners, 2024 Turing Award recipient, pioneer of reinforcement learning and professor, University of AlbertaSendhil Mullainathan, senior advisor, Intrepid Growth Partners, MacArthur Genius grant recipient and professor, MITNiamh Gavin, senior advisor, Intrepid Growth Partners, Applied AI scientist, CEO, Emergent Platforms

LINKS

Derby Mill show website: insights.intrepidgp.com/podcastSkin Analytics website and explainer videoRich Sutton’s home page. Follow Rich on XSendhil Mullainathan’s website. Follow Sendhil on XBe sure to catch every episode of The Derby Mill Series by subscribing on the following platforms: YouTube // Spotify // Apple Podcasts

DISCUSSION POINTS

00:00 Introduction01:24 Meet the team: Skin Analytics06:12 The lead-up to image recognition10:29 Patient drop-off post-referral14:03 Getting classification right18:47 Integrating into the healthcare system22:36 Cancer detection in the limit27:55 At-home cancer detection34:10 Making dermatology RL-able45:00 Using data as proxies for other diagnoses50:21 Early detection vs. overdiagnosis55:07 Higher rates of cancer detection advantages57:00 What took so long?59:07 Final remarks

Nugget 01 - Sensors Reveal Hidden Data in the Skin

Traditionally, dermatology has been rate-limited by the human eye and optical sensors. So incorporating a variety of additional sensors to collect more diverse and comprehensive data can open the door to a new kind of pre-primary care, potentially revealing more information about internal conditions like hypertension or liver disease.

Nugget 02 - The Economic Model Behind At-Home Diagnoses

There's a massive direct-to-consumer interest in skin health, which opens the door to a potential expansion of at-home skin-monitoring apps that could be used beyond only in primary care settings. But overdiagnoses risk overwhelming the healthcare system. In order to avoid case buildup, these apps require an economic model that leverages medical systems and consumer trust.

Nugget 03 - Redesigning the Treatment Delay

What prevents people from accessing treatment is not the diagnostic delay (which often involves a lengthy wait for results), but rather the delay in seeking help: People tend to wait for a reason to address an issue, which increases the risk of lowering the survival rate as a disease spreads.

DISCLAIMER

Intrepid GP is an investor in Skin Analytics. The content of this podcast is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as marketing, solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any securities or investments. The opinions expressed in this video are those of the participants and do not necessarily reflect the views of Intrepid Growth Partners or its affiliates. Any discussion of specific companies, technologies, or industries is for illustrative purposes and does not constitute investment advice. Viewers are encouraged to consult with their own financial, legal, and tax advisors before making any investment decisions.

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