AXRP - the AI X-risk Research Podcast 46 - Tom Davidson on AI-enabled Coups
Aug 7, 2025
Tom Davidson, a Senior Research Fellow at the Forethought Institute for AI Strategy, dives into the controversial idea of AI-enabled coups. He explores how advanced AI could grant small factions unprecedented power, potentially allowing them to manipulate public perception and state machinery. Davidson discusses the ethical dilemmas posed by AI in military contexts and the threat of corporate influence on democracy. He advocates for strategies to prevent these potential crises, emphasizing accountability and societal values in AI development.
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Military Coups Depend on Shared Belief
- Successful military coups depend on convincing the entire military that the coup will succeed. - This prevents a costly conflict as people want to be on the winning side, so the coup becomes self-reinforcing.
AI Raises Executive Coup Risks
- AI makes executive coups more plausible by enabling central actors to control powerful AI exclusively. - AI can replace humans enforcing checks and balances, consolidating power more easily for the executive.
AI Loyalty Shapes Coup Outcomes
- Secret loyalty and exclusive loyalty of AI systems deeply affect coup dynamics. - Even a small fraction secretly loyal AIs can enable control if others default to inaction in crises.
