Supply Shock Bitcoin Hasn’t Bottomed & the Cycle Still Controls Everything | Michael Terpin
Jan 20, 2026
Michael Terpin, a serial entrepreneur and author of 'Bitcoin Supercycle', dives deep into the dynamics of Bitcoin's cycles and market behavior. He shares insights on how whale activities influence market tops and bottoms, revealing that the recent 80K might not be the final bottom. The discussion touches on the impact of regulatory changes, the evolving narratives in altcoins, and the upcoming themes of AI and decentralized exchanges. Terpin highlights why the next bull market could take a very different shape than the last.
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Halving Beats The Calendar
- Bitcoin's cycle is better measured in blocks (210,000) than calendar years and averages about 46 months.
- Expect halving-driven cycles to shift timing slightly rather than strict four-year intervals.
Selling Into The Q4 Peak
- Michael Terpin recounts selling some holdings into the 2024 fourth-quarter and running a fund tied to his book.
- He misread an early whale move in July which later proved to be a large brokered sale by Galaxy.
Apathetic Top Signals Fragile Market
- The 2024 top lacked a parabolic FOMO peak and instead occurred amid apathy and repeated rejections near prior highs.
- That structural softness made the later sell-off and cascading declines likelier.
