David Lebovitz, Global Market Strategist, and Jared Gross, Head of Institutional Portfolio Strategy, discuss macro pressures affecting private markets including slower growth, risk of recession, higher interest rates, and challenges for private equity managers in a high inflation environment.
Private infrastructure assets, such as those in power generation and distribution, offer long-term contracted revenue streams that allow for pass-throughs of costs, making them resilient to inflation.
Macro-driven and long-short strategies in hedge funds can provide attractive levels of alpha by taking advantage of greater volatility and dispersion in the markets.
Deep dives
Insights on Macro Pressures in Private Markets
Private markets are not immune to economic and market volatility, as valuations eventually catch up to public markets. Slower economic growth and higher rates present challenges, but also create opportunities for investors in private markets, particularly in certain sectors. Private infrastructure assets, such as those in power generation and distribution, offer long-term contracted revenue streams that allow for pass-throughs of costs, making them resilient to inflation. Real estate and transportation assets with long-term leases that reset across time can insulate investors from rising prices and costs. Private credit remains interesting, with stable yields in the middle market space and potential opportunities in distress. In the hedge fund space, strategies that can navigate the current macro volatility, such as macro-driven and long-short strategies, can provide attractive levels of alpha. Despite challenges, private assets still offer diversification and potentially more attractive risk-adjusted returns in a higher rate environment.
Private Markets and the Impact of Higher Rates
The private market landscape is affected by changes in interest rates, causing potential challenges for large-cap leveraged buyout strategies. However, mid-sized and direct lending strategies in the private credit space remain attractive, offering better yields and credit metrics compared to the public markets. In addition, the lending side of the equation may see opportunities as higher rates can be beneficial for lenders. For venture capital, the impact of higher rates is less direct, but the correlation between investments and diversification within the venture portfolio may be affected. Private equity is likely to face re-ratings and write-downs as higher rates and borrowing costs impact valuations and exits. While private equity remains an attractive asset class, it may no longer benefit from the low interest rate environment experienced in the past decade.
Real Assets and Their Resilience
Real assets, such as private infrastructure and core real estate, offer resilience to inflation and can be attractive investments in the current environment. Contracted revenue streams in utilities and defense contractors allow for pass-throughs of costs, while capital-intensive assets with long-term leases can capture upside from rising prices and insulate from rising costs. Scale and diversification across sectors are key considerations for investing in real assets. Additionally, private equity managers with experience in high inflation periods and a focus on add-ons and platform creation may generate benefits for investors. Selectivity and understanding the nature of the alpha being exploited are critical in hedge fund strategies, such as macro-driven, long-short, and credit strategies, which can provide opportunities for diversification and alpha generation in an environment of higher volatility.
The Outlook for Hedge Funds
Hedge funds can play a role in diversifying portfolios beyond traditional stocks and bonds, especially in an environment of continued macroeconomic volatility. Macro-driven and long-short strategies have the potential to provide attractive levels of alpha by taking advantage of greater volatility and dispersion in the markets. Credit strategies, focusing on capital structure arbitrage, and private credit lending offer interesting opportunities in a higher rate environment. However, the impact of rising rates and higher borrowing costs may lead to revaluations and slower exits for private equity, reducing the historical attractiveness of the asset class. Selection and a disciplined approach are crucial in hedge fund investments, as different strategies and managers will navigate the evolving market conditions differently.
David Lebovitz, Global Market Strategist, and Jared Gross, Head of Institutional Portfolio Strategy, have a discussion around the macro pressures affecting private markets – across real assets, private equity, private credit and hedge funds – and where institutional investors can find the most promising investment opportunities.
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