Astral Codex Ten Podcast
Against The Generalized Anti-Caution Argument
Dec 5, 2024
Explore the pitfalls of making predictions based on past misjudgments, illustrated by a doctor's warnings about experimental drugs. Dive into the escalating conflict in Ukraine and the complications of supplying advanced weapons. Unpack the interplay between cognitive decline in leaders and the safety concerns surrounding AI, stressing vigilance against complacency. Finally, learn about risk assessment in politics, emphasizing the need for adapting predictions with emerging evidence while navigating trust in expert advisories.
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Quick takeaways
- Repeated failed warnings can dangerously undermine genuine caution, leading to potentially catastrophic outcomes when thresholds are eventually crossed.
- In geopolitical situations, ignoring escalating risks under the false security of past outcomes may result in severe miscalculations and consequences.
Deep dives
The Fallacy of Predictive Dismissal
Repeated failed predictions can create a false sense of security that ultimately undermines genuine caution. For instance, if a doctor warns a patient against escalating a drug dosage due to safety concerns but the patient continually increases it without apparent harm, the doctor’s credibility is eroded. The patient may then completely disregard future warnings, leading to potentially lethal consequences when a threshold is eventually crossed. Therefore, failing to heed caution because prior warnings were proven wrong overlooks the principle that certain risks become significant only after numerous exposures or escalations.
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