Real Vision: Finance & Investing
Is a U.S. Recession Still in the Cards? | Ash Bennington & Jared Dillian
May 6, 2025
Jared Dillian, author of the Daily Dirtnap newsletter, shares his candid insights on why he predicts an inevitable U.S. recession. He dives into his bullish stance on gold and foreign equities, particularly in Latin America, where he sees attractive dividend yields amidst political uncertainty. The conversation explores the shifting dynamics of market sentiment affecting gold and Treasuries, as well as Bitcoin's unique potential as a non-correlated asset during turbulent times. Dillian's analysis paints a vivid picture of the financial landscape ahead.
34:25
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Quick takeaways
- The discussion highlights the looming U.S. recession driven by a soaring budget deficit, which could reach $2.5 to $3 trillion.
- Gold's bullish trend is fueled by institutional and central bank buying, reflecting a hedge against concerns over fiscal mismanagement.
Deep dives
Market Conditions and Future Predictions
The stock market has seen a bounce of 13 to 15% from its lows, but analysts believe a significant catalyst may emerge in the next few months that could lead to a deeper bear market. The discussion draws a parallel to market behavior in 2001 following events like September 11, where a brief recovery preceded a larger downturn. Observations indicate a distinct change in market price actions suggesting potential instability, characterized by a higher frequency of significant downward movements. These market signals can create a sense of unease among traders, as the past patterns of behavior often govern future expectations.
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