The Intelligence from The Economist Unsteady state: Somalia in disarray
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Aug 6, 2025 
Tom Gardner, Africa correspondent for The Economist, dives into Somalia's alarming descent into chaos after a period of progress. He highlights the power struggles, political unrest, and humanitarian crises plaguing the nation. Gardner contrasts the federal government's precarious situation in Mogadishu with the relative successes of autonomous regions. He also emphasizes the crucial role of international support in fostering stability and resilience, shedding light on the complex challenges that continue to hinder peace in Somalia.
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Somalia's Fragile Federalism Crisis
- Somalia's federal dispute weakened national security and reversed gains against al-Shabaab jihadists.
- Centralizing power risks fragmenting the country more, highlighting fragile federalism challenges.
Puntland's Successful Offensive
- In Puntland, local forces backed by U.S. and UAE airstrikes fought Islamic State effectively.
- They nearly eradicated IS fighters in mountain caves, showing local security gains.
Successful State-Building in Somaliland and Puntland
- Somaliland and Puntland show stronger security than Somalia's federal government.
- Redirecting aid to successful statelets or recognizing Somaliland may improve Somalia's stability.