We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network BTC012: Bitcoin On-Chain Analysis w/ Plan B & Willy Woo (Bitcoin Podcast)
Feb 10, 2021
In this engaging discussion, Plan B, a prominent contributor to Bitcoin analysis known for his stock-to-flow model, joins Willy Woo, an expert in on-chain analysis. They delve into crucial trends driving the current market, like the maturation of derivatives and the implications of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). The duo shares their insights on the impact of Tether, Bitcoin's price dynamics post-halving, and the transformative potential of the Lightning Network. Their contrasting pricing models offer fascinating perspectives on Bitcoin's future amidst evolving market conditions.
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Bitcoin Cycle Trends
- The current Bitcoin price track falls between the 2012 and 2016 cycles, countering lengthening cycle theories.
- This suggests that Bitcoin's price patterns often repeat after halving events.
Halving Impact
- Bitcoin halvings create a supply shock, impacting the entire crypto market.
- This shock creates a resonance, resulting in four-year cycles tied to Bitcoin's halving events.
Four-Year Cycle Breakdown
- Bitcoin's four-year cycle might be divided into three phases based on block height: bull market, sell-off, and reversion to mean.
- Each phase roughly corresponds to 70,000 blocks, marking potential inflection points.