Exploring the disconnect between positive economic indicators and negative consumer sentiment, the podcast delves into why people feel negatively about the economy despite favorable trends. It highlights the significance of the Michigan survey in measuring consumer sentiment and explores the impact of constant access to bad news and political polarization. Furthermore, it discusses potential economic explanations for people's feelings, including missing data and pandemic-related issues.
Consumer sentiment remains low despite positive economic trends such as job market improvements and decreasing inflation, which has economists puzzled as they try to understand this disconnect.
Societal and cultural factors, along with political polarization, may be influencing people's economic perceptions and responses, leading to negative feelings about the economy even in objectively better economic conditions.
Deep dives
Disconnect between consumer sentiment and economic reality
For years, consumer sentiment has been a reliable indicator of how people feel about the economy. However, recent data shows a disconnect between sentiment and economic reality. Despite positive economic trends such as job market improvements and decreasing inflation, consumer sentiment remains low. This mystery has economists puzzled as they try to understand why people's perceptions of the economy are not aligning with the actual data. It is unclear whether this disconnect is due to non-economic factors like political polarization and amplified bad news on social media, or if traditional economic measures are missing important factors such as job stability and the impact of expired pandemic relief programs.
The role of consumer sentiment surveys
Consumer sentiment surveys, like the one conducted at the University of Michigan, provide valuable insights into people's attitudes and perceptions about the economy. These surveys ask questions about financial well-being, business conditions, and buying intentions. The data from these surveys are used to calculate a consumer sentiment index. However, the interpretation of this index is subjective and requires careful analysis. One key finding from the Michigan survey is that despite objectively better economic conditions compared to previous periods of low sentiment, people are still reporting negative feelings about the economy. This may be because societal and cultural factors, along with political polarization, are influencing people's economic perceptions and responses.
Possible explanations for the disconnect
Economists are exploring various explanations for the disconnect between consumer sentiment and economic reality. One hypothesis is the unequal pandemic recovery, where the economic benefits may be concentrated among certain groups, leading to a disparity in sentiment. Another aspect being considered is the influence of job stability and the changing nature of work, which may not be adequately captured by traditional labor market measures. Additionally, the expiration of pandemic relief programs and the impact of negative news on social media could be contributing factors. The complex interplay of economic and non-economic factors make it challenging to pinpoint a singular explanation for the sentiment disconnect.
Would you say that you and your family are better off or worse off, financially, than you were a year ago? Do you think in 12 months we'll have good times, financially, or bad? Generally speaking, do you think now is a good time or a bad time to buy a house?
These are the kinds of questions baked into the Consumer Sentiment Index. And while the economy has been humming along surprisingly well lately, sentiment has stayed surprisingly low.
Today on the show: We are really bummed about the economy, despite the fact that unemployment and inflation are down. So, what gives? We talk to a former Fed economist trying to get to the heart of this paradox, and travel to Michigan to check in on the place where they check the vibes of the economy.