Insightful analysis surrounds the final meeting between Biden and China's leader, revealing China's relief in evolving past his presidency. The conversation dives into how a potential Trump return could reshape U.S.-China relations, focusing on economic separation rather than military conflicts. It also speculates on Trump's possible collaboration with BRICS nations and the media's neglect of these dynamics. The discussions highlight an emerging shift in geopolitical relations as BRICS pursues greater independence from the U.S. dollar's influence.
China perceives relief at the potential end of the Biden administration, feeling disrespected by its handling of established red lines.
Under a potential Trump administration, the U.S. may pursue a more diplomatic approach with BRICS nations to maintain economic dominance while easing tensions.
Deep dives
Biden and Xi's Deteriorating Relationship
The recent meeting between Biden and Xi Jinping highlights significant tension in U.S.-China relations. Biden claims to be satisfied with the progress made, while Xi's perception is one of relief at Biden's potential departure, believing that he has been duplicitous and has not respected China's established red lines. China has clearly articulated these red lines, indicating their unwillingness to tolerate further uncooperative actions from the U.S., especially under a new Trump administration. The interactions show a deepening frustration from China towards the Biden administration's contradictory stance on cooperation and conflict.
Anticipating a Trump Administration's Approach
China expects a more adversarial yet straightforward relationship with Trump, contrasting sharply with the perceived dishonesty of the Biden administration. Trump's inclination towards an 'economic divorce' rather than military conflict suggests a preference to contain tensions economically rather than escalate them into open confrontation. Despite the presence of hawkish figures in Trump's team advocating for a more aggressive policy, there remains an understanding within Trump’s electoral base that conflicts, especially over Taiwan, are undesirable. This dynamic indicates that while tensions with China may continue, they might be managed differently if Trump is in office again.
BRICS and Future U.S. Relations
As the BRICS nations gain prominence, there is a lack of a clear policy from a potential Trump administration regarding this bloc. Trump is likely to seek diplomatic engagements that reinforce the U.S. dollar’s position in global trade, primarily by negotiating deals that would keep BRICS nations from completely moving away from using the dollar. There is a possibility that Trump may attempt to ease economic sanctions and establish a framework for cooperation that aligns with both American interests and the desires of BRICS members. This fine balance between maintaining economic dominance and fostering international relations will be key to how the U.S. navigates the emerging geopolitical landscape.