The Exchange The Long-Term Bull Case for Nvidia, President Trump’s Firing Spree, and a Shipping Shake-Up 8/28/25
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Aug 28, 2025 Robert Primus, a member of the Surface Transportation Board, shares his insights on the regulatory landscape surrounding the proposed Norfolk Southern and Union Pacific merger. He discusses the implications of Trump's administration's move to close a shipping loophole and its impact on consumer prices. Primus also reveals his plans to challenge his recent termination while emphasizing the need for independence in federal boards. With a focus on the chip industry, they explore Nvidia's market positioning amidst evolving AI dynamics.
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Concentration Likely Reflects Market Structure
- Nvidia's data-center demand looks concentrated among a few hyperscalers but that may reflect current supply constraints rather than permanent risk.
- The true test is whether customer diversity expands as supply and deployment scale over time.
Software Ecosystem Is Nvidia’s Moat
- CUDA's vast software ecosystem makes Nvidia's position sticky beyond raw chip performance.
- Software and developer adoption can create a durable moat that hardware competitors must overcome.
AMD As A Credible Challenger
- AMD is likely to capture a modest but growing share as it improves ecosystem and product fit.
- Competition may remain meaningful without dethroning Nvidia quickly due to CUDA's lead.