PGIM Chairman, David Hunt, discusses his 2024 outlook including higher inflation and rates, rotation into credit, shifts in public fixed income markets. They also talk about the growth of private credit markets and structural changes in Japan. The impact of the banking crisis on the commercial real estate market and the role of private capital is also discussed.
Higher inflation and rates will provide better returns for savers and lead to a healthier balance between savers and investors.
Private credit is experiencing substantial growth due to capital restrictions, offering higher returns and better investor protections compared to public credit.
Deep dives
The Outlook for 2024: Higher Inflation and Rates
The CEO of Peejum discusses the expectation of higher inflation and rates in the coming years. He believes this is a positive shift, as it will provide better returns for savers and lead to a healthier balance between savers and investors. The CEO predicts a rotation into credit, with institutional and retail investors moving away from riskier assets and investing more in public fixed income markets. As money is drawn out of money market funds, there will be increased investment in public fixed income markets, as well as a growing focus on private credit opportunities.
The Rise of Private Credit
The podcast delves into the growth of private credit markets and its appeal to institutional investors. The CEO explains that private credit has become a fast-growing business due to banks imposing capital restrictions in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis. Many middle-market companies are seeking private credit opportunities, and investors are attracted to the higher returns and better investor protections offered in private credit compared to public credit. This shift towards private credit is expected to continue as a structural change in investment preferences.
The Positive Story of Japan's Economy
The podcast highlights the positive developments in Japan's economy, fiscal policy, and monetary policy. While governance reforms are still in progress, the economy has shown signs of improvement and movement towards higher prices. This has resulted in increased foreign capital going into Japan, with a global pivot away from China. The podcast emphasizes the potential for more investment in Japan and a shift in global focus towards Japan, Korea, and Australia in terms of security and investment opportunities.