Carbon Frontiers 2025 Episode 1 | Mark Lewis, Head of Research, Andurand Capital
Feb 8, 2025
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Mark Lewis, Head of Research at Andurand Capital, an expert in carbon markets, joins the discussion on the EU's complex carbon landscape. He explores the impact of the EU Emissions Trading System in balancing emissions reduction with industrial competitiveness. Mark delves into the implications of the U.S.'s exit from the Paris Agreement and how it reshapes global climate policies. He also addresses the challenges posed by the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism and the necessity for innovative strategies to maintain Europe's leadership in carbon trading.
The EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) is crucial for global carbon markets, balancing emissions reductions with industrial competitiveness amidst geopolitical challenges.
Potential linking of the UK and EU ETS could stabilize carbon pricing while the introduction of Article 6 credits may harmonize international compliance efforts.
Deep dives
The Role of the EU ETS as a Global Benchmark
The EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) remains the primary global benchmark for compliance carbon markets due to its sustained liquidity and significant trading volume. It is the largest and longest-standing market, having operated since 2005, with hundreds of thousands of tons traded daily, primarily driven by power-generating companies which have compliance obligations. As Europe transitions towards decarbonization, the challenge of balancing industry competitiveness while enforcing emissions reductions has heightened. The EU ETS is expected to undergo significant changes as industrial sectors take on a larger role in price formation, similar to a relay race where the baton is passed from power generation to industrial users.
The UK ETS and Potential Reconnection with the EU
Recent developments suggest that the UK government is exploring the possibility of linking its emissions trading system (ETS) back to the EU ETS, which could stabilize carbon pricing for both regions. This reconciliation appears motivated by economic reasoning since the UK relies heavily on the EU market for trade. Amid the anticipated implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) in the EU and the UK's delay in establishing its version, this move could alleviate pressures caused by disparities in carbon pricing. If formal agreement is reached, UK allowances might see a significant price adjustment, drawing investor attention and enhancing market liquidity.
Geopolitical Implications of U.S. Policy Changes
The recent decision by the U.S., under President Trump, to withdraw from the Paris Agreement raises concerns about the international carbon market dynamics. It may impact the competitiveness of European industries, given U.S. access to cheaper energy sources and lower emissions constraints. The EU's planned CBAM could potentially counterbalance these effects but might inadvertently delay the urgency for European industries to actively participate in the carbon market. Observations suggest that while the U.S. withdrawal is disappointing, it might also create pathways for the EU to bolster its market mechanisms and ensure competitiveness in light of changing geopolitical landscapes.
Opportunities for Integration of Article 6 Markets
The discussion around integrating Article 6 credit systems into the EU ETS illuminates potential avenues for harmonizing international carbon markets. The introduction of these credits could enable European industries to maintain competitiveness while also prioritizing emissions reductions on a global scale. The approach of allowing compliant and transparently traded credits from developing nations may mitigate some resistance faced by European policymakers. Ultimately, leveraging Article 6 credits could create a robust framework ensuring that Europe’s stringent market is mirrored globally, bringing about collaborative opportunities in decarbonization efforts.
We kick off Carbon Frontiers 2025 this week with Mark Lewis, Head of Research at Andurand Capital. David Greely sits down with Mark to discuss the leading role that the EU ETS may play in moving carbon markets forward as it’s forced to balance carbon emissions reductions with keeping its industry competitive in a world where the U.S. is no longer in the Paris Agreement.
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