The Compound and Friends

Only One Thing Can Stop the AI Crash, Worst Drawdowns, Blue Owl vs Apollo

56 snips
Nov 19, 2025
A lively debate unfolds on whether the recent downturn in AI stocks signifies a crash or a healthy market reset. The hosts delve into concerns about overinvestment in AI, questioning if current valuations for tech giants are justified. They explore Nvidia's earnings expectations and the ripple effects on semiconductor stocks. Insights on retail investors becoming major price setters and the global impact of tech sell-offs add depth to the conversation. Finally, intriguing contrasts between Blue Owl and Apollo highlight liquidity challenges in their business models.
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INSIGHT

AI Pullback Driven By Economics, Not Spending

  • The AI sell-off stemmed from renewed doubts about unit economics and depreciation, not from companies stopping spending.
  • Investors are recalibrating whether enormous CapEx will yield timely payback and sustainable returns.
INSIGHT

Nvidia Earnings Could Reset The Market

  • Nvidia's earnings and guidance are positioned as the key event that can calm or amplify the AI correction.
  • Street skepticism about depreciation schedules will dominate the call and market reaction.
ANECDOTE

Berkshire Buys Alphabet While Hosts Sold Earlier

  • Berkshire's recent purchase of Alphabet provided a halo effect but didn't stop short-term weakness.
  • Josh noted he sold Alphabet near the lows before Berkshire disclosed its stake.
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