What's Next For Markets What To Expect When You're Not Expecting Economic Data
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Oct 26, 2025 Jake Oubina, an economist at Piper Sandler, discusses the intricacies of macroeconomic data. He explores how alternative data sources like the Adobe Digital Price Index can fill gaps left by delayed government reports. The conversation delves into inflation dynamics, particularly how tariffs affect core goods prices. Jake also shares insights on labor market conditions, consumer sentiment, and the potential impact of AI on productivity. He presents a cautious but optimistic economic outlook for the next 6-12 months, factoring in fiscal policies and market trends.
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Private Data Can Replace Missing Gov Reports
- Alternative and private data can reliably substitute for missing government releases like NFP and CPI.
- Jake Oubina argues PMIs, ADP, claims, and digital price indices often give more timely, useful signals than official prints.
Use Leading Private Price Indicators
- Use leading private indicators like the Adobe Digital Price Index and apartment rent series to anticipate CPI moves.
- Focus on paid vs received prices and shelter/rent metrics for earlier signals of inflation trends.
Tariffs Are Shifting Inflation And Margins
- Tariffs have driven price pass-through in core goods while core services have disinflated, leaving overall inflation near baseline.
- Margin compression from tariffs explains hiring slowdowns rather than broad layoffs, per Jake Oubina.