Peak China or New China with Keyu Jin and Jörg Wuttke
Jan 4, 2024
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"Peak China or New China" features Keyu Jin, a well-connected professor and author, and Jörg Wuttke, President Emeritus of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China. They discuss China's struggling economy, the dilemma of foreign companies deciding to stay or go, China's potential for innovation, needed reforms, and the future of the technology and innovation sector. They examine the macroeconomic situation, the next generation's impact, and the implications of US-China decoupling on China's alliances and global economy.
Cyclical factors like the pandemic and crackdowns have contributed to China's economic troubles, but there is potential for recovery through closing the income gap and mobilizing migrant workers' consumption power.
Despite challenges faced by foreign companies in China, staying in the market is crucial due to its size and dominance in sectors like automobiles and chemicals; China's engagement in technological advancements and policy reforms are necessary for economic growth.
Deep dives
The Chinese Economy: Challenges and Potential
The podcast episode features discussions with Keijin and Yoruk Utka about the Chinese economy. Keijin emphasizes that cyclical factors, such as the pandemic and crackdowns, have contributed to the economic troubles faced by China. She believes that the real estate sector and post-pandemic recovery are sources of economic malaise. However, she sees great potential for China's economy, particularly in closing the gap for the 900 million people living under $300 per month and unleashing the consumption power of migrant workers. She argues that China's focus on innovation and productivity, along with its large-scale investments in cutting-edge technologies, demonstrates a commitment to economic development. Yoruk highlights the challenges facing European businesses in China, including overexposure and lack of market access. Despite this, he emphasizes the necessity for European companies to stay in China due to its market size and dominance in areas like automobiles and chemicals. He also discusses the importance of China's engagement in technological advancements and the need for policy reforms to address economic concerns.
China's Economic Reforms and Competitiveness
The podcast delves into the progress of economic reforms in China over the past decade. While the market economy has played a bigger role in sectors like manufacturing and technology, there is still room for improvement. Keijin notes the need for China to address issues of overcapacity, particularly in the manufacturing sector. Yoruk highlights the importance of preserving market mechanisms and enhancing competition in China. He also emphasizes the challenges posed by local debt and the role of local governments in pursuing their own economic ambitions. Both speakers discuss the role of innovation and technology in driving China's economy, with Keijin noting China's leading position in cutting-edge technology research and Yoruk highlighting the importance of technological advancements and engineering talent.
Assessing China's Economic Outlook
The podcast examines the current economic outlook for China and the factors that may influence its growth. Keijin suggests that the real estate crisis and longer-term challenges like urbanization and local debt pose significant obstacles to China's economic recovery. She anticipates a slow and long recovery process. Yoruk acknowledges the challenges but believes that next year's sentiment will likely be better than the current year due to government measures to safeguard the real estate market. However, he cautions that China's growth may stabilize at a slower rate, suggesting a potential structural shift. Both speakers recognize the importance of China's innovation and technology sectors in driving future economic growth.
Foreign Companies in China and China's Global Engagement
The podcast explores the perspectives of foreign companies operating in China and the future of China's global engagement. Yoruk discusses the survey findings that show a decline in optimism among foreign businesses in China. He believes that companies should stay in China to remain competitive and to tap into the vast consumer market. However, he acknowledges concerns about market access issues and the need for a more open business environment. Keijin highlights the internal and external challenges facing China's global engagement, including fiscal constraints and tensions with the US. She emphasizes China's commitment to innovation and technology as essential drivers for its global engagement, but notes the need for careful management of economic priorities alongside political considerations.
Two terrific knowers of China talk about the prospects for the struggling Chinese economy and the question that's on the mind of foreign companies in the country: stay, or go?
Listen to Keyu Jin, well-connected professor at the London School of Economics and author of 2023's The New China Playbook; and Jörg Wuttke, President Emeritus of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China. They spoke on stage at the STATE OF ASIA conference, Asia Society Switzerland's flagship event, held on November 23, 2023, in Zurich.
The conversation was moderated by Martina Fuchs. Watch the full video here. All videos and written key takeaways from the entire 2023 STATE OF ASIA conference are available on our site.
- STATE OF ASIA is a podcast from Asia Society Switzerland. Season 5, bonus episode 3 - Published: January 4, 2024 Host and Producer: Remko Tanis, Programs and Editorial Manager, Asia Society Switzerland
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