The Rent Roll with Jay Parsons EP#68 Carl Whitaker | Q1 '26 Multifamily Update & Outlook
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Jan 22, 2026 Carl Whitaker, Chief Economist at RealPage, shares his insights on the multifamily housing landscape. He discusses the complexities of demand, especially in light of the economy's uncertainties, and anticipates reduced supply moving into 2026. Carl explores the key drivers behind absorption trends, emphasizing migration and demographics. He forecasts modest national rent growth and highlights promising Sunbelt markets like Tampa and Raleigh. The conversation also tackles the impact of concessions on effective rents and offers a refreshing take on long-term investment themes.
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Winter Could Be The Trough
- Winter may mark the trough for apartment rents barring a recession.
- Spring leasing will be decisive as supply drops and concessions must burn off.
Deliveries Drop Sharply In 2026
- Q4 2025 looked like the last big quarter for deliveries and 2026 completions fall sharply.
- 2026 deliveries will be the lowest since 2014, easing supply pressure vs 2024–25.
Absorption Fell Slower Than Supply
- Absorption slowed in late 2025 as fewer new units delivered, but fell more slowly than supply.
- That means vacancy can still improve even with lower absorption.