Elijah J. Magnier: The War in Syria is Over, What Happens Next?

Geopolitics & Empire · Elijah J. Magnier: The War in Syria is Over, What Happens Next? #092 Senior Political Risk Analyst Elijah J. Magnier discusses the end of the war in Syria and what follows as the U.S. pulls out, Syria is reintegrated into the Arab League, Russia helps consolidate Syrian sovereignty, the Kurds are left to fend for themselves, and Turkey and Israel ponder on how to move forward. Transcript Podcast: On this edition of Geopolitics and Empire, we interview senior political risk analyst, Elijah Magnier, who has over 30 years of experience and in depth knowledge of the Middle East. We'll be looking at the developments in Syria, and examine whether the war is really over. Why don't we start with President Trump's announcement of US withdrawal? Podcast: This is confusing, because we know the US has had a long term plan of regime change in Syria, and just a week or two ago, an article was published describing how US forces would remain indefinitely in Syria, and then we hear Trump say that US forces are pulling out. His claim that the US has defeated ISIS is kind of silly, because in reality, it's been Syria, Russia, and Iran who were largely responsible for defeating a US sponsored ISIS, but Trump's comment is a face saving measure perhaps before a naïve US populace. Podcast: Some people remain skeptical as to the US pulling out, what is your assessment? [spoiler] Elijah Magnier: Yes, hi, I think from what we have seen today, and what we have seen in the last couple of weeks, it seems Trump is serious about pulling out his troops from Syria, particularly in the area that his forces are occupying in the Northeast of Syria, and that is [inaudible 00:01:27] province, and [inaudible 00:01:28], and part of [inaudible 00:01:30]. Elijah Magnier: The reaction of his defense secretary, the reaction of other diplomats like Brett McGurk, who resigned from the US establishment, was a good indication that Trump wants to go ahead and pull out of Syria. Moreover, the reaction of Turkey that was insisting on disarming the YPG Kurds that are the PKK version, Syria PKK version, that also confirm one thing, that the US can no longer protect the Kurds, and can no longer stay in that part of the country. Elijah Magnier: Today, we saw the Syrian forces deploying two small divisions in Manbij, and particularly in an area around Arima that's a village west of Manbij that they Syrian and the Russian use to maintain an observation location in the area for over a year, and they pull out from this 20 location in the area, like Arima, Arab Hassan Kabir, [inaudible 00:02:54], Al Furat, Dandaniya, and all these villages. Elijah Magnier: They pull out, and they pull out when Turkey attack Afrin, and they returned only three days ago, but before they have reached an agreement with the Kurds yesterday evening, late around midnight, so they have decided to send two small divisions in the city of Manbij, and the Kurds, YPG, announce their withdrawal from the city, although the Americans are still there, but the Americans can do nothing without the Kurds, because they have used the Kurds as a human shield to protect them, and the presence of 2,000, or 2,000 or a little bit more than 2,000 American troops are not enough to protect the Americans in an area that is more or less 50,000 square meters. That is more or less a third of Syria, which is exactly between 23 to 24% of the geographic Syria. Elijah Magnier: Therefore, they need the Kurds, and if they Kurds pulled out of Manbij, there are no other forces that can protect the Americans, so, yes, my answer is Trump seems serious, now the Syrian army moved in, they put the Russian and the Syrian flag on all the position, they are regaining control of to give a strong indication to the Americans and to Turkey that now Russia is involved, and no other force will regain the force of the Syrian territory but the Syrian army. Podcast: We're seeing other promising signs, which you have written about, that Arab investment will pour back into Syria, and that Assad will be diplomatically and politically perhaps reinstated and welcomed back, begrudgingly, with his neighbors, including the Arab league. You're right that the Sudanese president recently visited Assad, and that lays the ground work for more Arab leaders to pay tribute to Assad in 2019. We see that countries like Italy, and the UAE are, I think, reopening embassies in Syria. Does this mean, then, that operation Timber Sycamore and the regime change plan has been called off and that the war is finally over? Elijah Magnier: Indeed, yes, the regime change plan is history now, is behind us. The integrity of Syria, regardless who is sitting on top of the country, is preserved today, and there is no more [inaudible 00:05:53] state, or Jihadists state, or a chaos in control of the [inaudible 00:06:00]. Elijah Magnier: Yes, the Arabs are returning. Sudan is a very close ally to South Arabia and to the Emirates. Sudanese forces are fighting alongside with the Emirates, and the Saudis in Yemen, and President Bashir would never dare to take a unilateral decision to reopen widely the relationship between, to open the road to the Arabs to return by his first visit to Syria after seven years of war. Elijah Magnier: Therefore, it is with the agreement of the Arabs, and with the consent of the Americans, because they also were informed about the visit of Omar al-Bashir, and they didn't object. We saw the Emirates, they opened their embassy at the [inaudible 00:06:54] level yesterday. We see that [inaudible 00:06:57] is going to start functioning at a full state embassy in Damascus. Elijah Magnier: There is an information that I have about the meeting between Mohammed Bin Salman and the advisor on the security issued to the President Assad, General Ali [inaudible 00:07:22] who met with Mohammed Bin Salman a few years back, and Bin Salman said his intention is not to destabilize the country, and that his support to Syria is limited to what the Americans are asking him to do, therefore he just fulfilling the commitment of the Americans to appoint where he express on the ground in Syria his lack of intention to continue supporting Jihadists when he gave up on Al Ghouta around Damascus, and [inaudible 00:08:03] that Saudi Arabia was financing. Elijah Magnier: Today we see several thousand of [inaudible 00:08:09] are working under Turkey and no longer under the flag of Saudi Arabia, because they no longer received the support of Saudi Arabia. Yes, there is a meeting of the Arab League that's going to happen at the beginning of next year, and the Arab League will open its arms to the return of Syria back to the Arab, let's say, family, because the gun countries would like to regain some of their losses in Syria by seeing if by regaining, a real normalizing the relationship with Syria, they can push Syria a little bit far from Iran. That's an objective that I don't think they will reach, but at the other hand, Syria will be extremely happy to start a good relationship with the Arab state because Syria, Iran, and Russia, and China cannot rebuild the country, particularly when the need to reconstruct Syria is between 250 and 400 billion dollars. Elijah Magnier: There is a need for not only Syrian hands to reconstruct the country, and not only China, Russia, Iran and those around Syria that did not declare a [inaudible 00:09:38] state objective on Syria, or did not declare war on Syria. There is a need for other countries, a rich country to come and invest in Syria, and Assad will welcome even Saudi Arabia. Elijah Magnier: Now, the war is almost over, but we still have, as a first objective, will be for the Syrian army to eliminate ISIS along the Euphrates where the US forces were offering protection to these militants, and second need to regain control of [inaudible 00:10:18] and then to turn towards [inaudible 00:10:23]. Podcast: I'd like to get your thought on Russia's role in the Syrian conflict. This is a very, I guess, divisive topic, especially in the west, and what we try to do here on Geopolitics and Empire is look at thing without our own emotions, or preconceived notions, or biases, or ideologies getting in the way, which is why we interview people from left, right, and in between. I recently posted a political cartoon on social media, which perhaps you may have seen, a Syrian woman telling her young son not to worry, that she will be okay, meanwhile multiple knives and daggers are depicted sticking out from the backside of the woman, and country names are listed, such as Qatar, Saudi Arabia, USA, France, Germany, Israel, and Turkey. Podcast: A friend of mine raised the question as to whether a Russian dagger should also be depicted, implying that Russia is responsible in some way for the Syrian conflict, or taking advantage of the conflict, but based on history and the actions taking by Russia in accordance with international law, I personally see no wrongdoing by Russia in this Syrian conflict. What is your assessment? Elijah Magnier: Well, Russia was on the side when the war imposed on Syria started in 2011, and Russia was not yet ready to reenter the international arena, and particularly the Middle East complication, because Russia was building up it's strength, ready to face other challenges in the future that we see today, it is facing these challenges. We saw Russia did not interfere in what happened in Libya and allow the American and Europe to do whatever they want in Libya, and the result is a failed state, and a disastrous situation. Elijah Magnier: But Russia was not in the position to interfere. In 2011, Russia, again, was not in a position to interfere in Syria, on the other hand, Russia learned from the mistakes in the major Libya, and was limiting itself, which is not little, to support Syria at the UN and prevent the Americans from attacking or from taking the illegal right from the UN to attack Syria,