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The Insight by Oaktree Capital

Performing Credit Quarterly 2Q2024: The Dual Economy

Jul 30, 2024
Join Armen Panossian, Co-CEO and Head of Performing Credit, and Danielle Poli, Assistant Portfolio Manager for Global Credit, as they delve into the complexities of the U.S. dual economy. They discuss the conflicting economic signals challenging central bankers and investors. With interest rates remaining high, many companies may struggle with weak capital structures. The duo also analyzes the anticipated surge in CMBS issuance and the necessary cautious approach to risk management in a volatile credit landscape.
41:37

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

  • The contrasting economic conditions highlight the challenges faced by middle-income consumers, increasing pressure on companies with unstable capital structures amid high interest rates.
  • Rising wealth concentration among high-income individuals is driving a shift toward alternative investments, affecting the credit landscape and investment strategies.

Deep dives

Dual Economy Challenges

Conflicting trends in the U.S. economy depict a duality that complicates decision-making for both central bankers and investors. While the stock market climbs to new heights, with companies achieving trillion-dollar valuations, lower-income consumers struggle under the pressure of high interest rates and inflation on essential goods. The post-pandemic depletion of excess savings among these consumers has exacerbated their financial struggles, contrasting sharply with the growing wealth of high-income individuals. This economic divergence raises concerns over potential instability in credit markets as some companies rely heavily on refinancing their debts and may face difficulties if market conditions shift significantly.

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