Naval lessons from the Black Sea & how China’s enormous new invasion mothership rewrites the rules of war
Sep 3, 2024
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Former Royal Navy officer Tom Sharp dives into the groundbreaking naval developments in the Black Sea, highlighting Ukraine's unexpected successes against the Russian fleet. He discusses how the rise of drones is reshaping traditional naval warfare and the implications for military strategies worldwide. Sharp also brings attention to China's rapid production of military vessels, stressing the need for Western powers to adapt. The conversation uncovers critical lessons from the Moskva incident, emphasizing the importance of robust defense and surveillance protocols in modern conflict.
The successful adaptation of Ukraine's use of drones in the Black Sea has fundamentally altered naval power dynamics against the Russian fleet.
China's rapid expansion of military vessel production necessitates strategic innovation and adaptation from Western navies to address emerging threats.
Deep dives
The Impact of Drones in the Black Sea Conflict
The use of drones has significantly altered the course of the conflict in the Black Sea, particularly for Ukraine. Initially, the Russian Navy dominated the region, effectively blocking Ukrainian grain exports and controlling maritime operations. However, as Ukrainian forces adapted and increasingly utilized uncrewed surface vessels and drones, they successfully targeted Russian ships and infrastructure, leading to a marked shift in naval power. The sinking of the Moskva, a prominent event in this war, highlighted the vulnerabilities of the Russian Navy and demonstrated how drones could disrupt traditional naval strategies.
Challenges Facing the Russian Navy
The current operational effectiveness of the Russian Navy in the Black Sea has been severely diminished, raising questions about its future capabilities. After suffering significant losses, including a large portion of its fleet at the bottom of the Black Sea, the Russian Navy now finds itself restricted in its operations, particularly due to the Montreux Convention, which limits reinforcement capabilities. Additionally, the lack of effective surveillance and intelligence has hampered their ability to detect and respond to drone threats. Despite still possessing missile capabilities, the overall operational capacity of the Russian fleet appears functionally defeated as they struggle against a backdrop of incompetence and poor preparation.
Future of Naval Warfare and Global Dynamics
The evolving landscape of naval warfare has raised debates on the relevance of traditional naval forces amidst the rise of drone technology and uncrewed systems. While there are arguments suggesting conventional navies may become obsolete due to advancements in unmanned warfare, historical context shows that navies serve essential roles beyond combat. The specific circumstances in the Black Sea may not universally apply to other maritime environments, indicating that while drones are becoming crucial, they will not entirely replace crewed naval vessels. As nations like China aggressively expand their naval capabilities, the challenges posed to Western navies will require strategic adaptation and innovation to effectively respond in this changing milieu.
Ukraine has stunned the world in the Black Sea, pushing back the Russian fleet and sinking numerous vessels. Is it really true that drones have fundamentally changed war at sea? And what is happening in China, where the production of new military vessels is dwarfing the efforts of Western countries? We spoke to former Royal Navy officer Tom Sharp to find out more.