China facing a potential financial collapse, Target losing $1.3 billion to shoplifters, millions locked in homes due to high mortgage rates, media promoting higher inflation, Congress rejects CBDC but the Fed is building one, American consumers running out of money, Fed planning higher rates until job market breaks.
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Quick takeaways
China's economy is facing a potential crisis, with major analysts warning of a 'Lehman moment' and significant distress in manufacturing and home builders, highlighting the downward spiral of the Chinese economy.
Target has experienced lower earnings and a $1.3 billion loss in inventory strength due to backlash and industrial-scale shoplifting incidents, with the promotion of LGBTQ merchandise during Pride Month leading to a consumer boycott and decreased sales, indicating the impact of social issues on retail businesses.
Deep dives
China's Financial Crisis and Government Response
China is facing a potential financial crisis as their economy deteriorates. The Wall Street Journal warns of a possible 'Lehman moment', referring to the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008. China's GDP growth has been downgraded by major analysts, highlighting a downward spiral. Manufacturing and home builders in China are in distress, with over half of the Chinese economy affected. Chinese home builders hold over five trillion in debt, making them too big to bail out. The Chinese government has hit the panic button, ordering investment funds to stop selling Chinese stocks and major banks to buy the Yuan to stabilize the currency.
Target's Earnings Decline Due to Backlash and Shoplifting
Retailer Target reported lower earnings due to backlash and industrial-scale shoplifting incidents. The promotion of LGBTQ merchandise during Pride Month led to a consumer boycott and decreased sales. Target lost $15 billion in value and saw a significant drop in traffic. Moreover, the company reported a $1.3 billion loss in inventory strength due to theft, with 1 in 20 items sold being stolen. Theft incidents involving violence or threats of violence increased by 120%. Retail theft is a widespread issue, impacting other big businesses such as Coles and Footlocker. The rising theft and lower earnings in retail are expected to worsen due to inflation, economic uncertainties, and the end of pandemic era savings.
Mortgage rates in the United States have reached a near 25-year high, impacting housing affordability. Rates have surged by over a third since last year, now standing at 7.5%. This increase in mortgage rates has made it difficult for homeowners to sell and rebuy, as the cost of new mortgages is significantly higher. Empty nesters looking to downsize and families seeking larger homes face challenges. The surging rates exacerbate the housing shortage, with housing inventory being 46% below the historical average. Higher mortgage rates are particularly burdensome for young couples who struggle to afford housing payments with half their salaries. The rise in mortgage rates also affects rental costs, which have increased by 25% in the past three years, further straining the budgets of working-class families.
- WSJ: China is Facing a "Lehman Moment" - Target loses $1.3 billion to shoplifters - Millions locked in their homes as mortgage rates hit 25 year high - Media wants higher inflation, forever - Congress rejects a CBDC. The Fed's building one anyway - The American Consumer is Running out of Money - Fed: higher rates until the job market breaks
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