Debt Crisis Inflating Assets Higher with Clive Thompson
Apr 19, 2024
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Clive Thompson, with 47 years in wealth management, discusses potential financial crisis, stickier inflation, financial repression, and the rise in precious metals. The conversation explores impacts of low interest rates on banks, challenges faced by American banks, and inflation trends influenced by the Ukraine-Russia conflict. China's increasing gold purchases and contrasting behaviors between Chinese and Westerners towards gold are also analyzed for diversification strategies.
Increasing debt leads to global asset price inflation, driven by asset scarcity and rising demand.
Banking sector risks from short-term borrowing vs long-term lending mismatch could lead to insolvency and failures.
Deep dives
Impact of Government Debt on Asset Allocation
As the government accrues more debt, individuals consider their asset allocation strategies, leading to a rise in asset prices worldwide. The increasing rarity and desirability of assets influence their quicker price escalation. Retail prices are also affected by components like labor, while fiat money's inflation rate is around 10%.
Banking Sector Vulnerabilities
The banking sector faces challenges due to the mismatch in short-term borrowing and long-term lending practices. Long-term loans, including mortgages and corporate lending, expose banks to refinancing risks. With interest rates rising, banks may incur losses on treasury bonds, potentially leading to insolvency and banking failures.
Commercial Real Estate Market Concerns
The commercial real estate market faces uncertainty as changing work trends impact occupancy rates and tenant demands. Reduced office utilization affects businesses around offices, influencing lease renewals and rental income. Landlords may struggle with lower rents, higher interest rates, and potential defaults, raising concerns about property valuations.
Gold Purchases and Financial Repression
Amid economic uncertainties, China and other countries are increasing gold purchases, reflecting concerns about the value of US treasuries. Chinese citizens are gravitating towards gold investments due to market instability. Central banks are diversifying reserves with gold, anticipating potential currency devaluation and inflation risks.
On this episode of the WTFinance podcast I had the pleasure of welcoming back Clive Thompson. Clive's entire career was in wealth management, mainly Swiss private banking. This provides him a unique insight into central banks.
During our conversation we spoke about why we didn't experience a banking crisis in 2023, whether it could be a risk moving forward, governments getting poorer while someone else is getting richer, stickier than expected inflation, financial repression, precious metals and more. I hope you enjoy!
0:00 - Introduction 2:16 - Should we be worried about further banking crisis? 11:21 - Light at end of the tunnel darkening? 13:20 - Maybe long end of yield curve to increase further 15:01 - Stickier than expected inflation? 16:31 - Banks under more pressure? 28:33 - FED and other central banks moving to financial repression? 33:36 - Is this why we’ve seen an increase in precious metals? 43:33 - One message to takeaway from our conversation?
Clive has 47 years of experience in finance & wealth management. This encompasses structuring and advice relating to quoted investments, Private Equity investments, family businesses, tax, residency, real estate, inheritance, Wills, legal, lending, Trusts, Companies and Foundations and all kinds of personal and private advice. He has been actively involved for decades in the arena of Trust structures. This often involved negotiating and discussing the contracts relating to the sale of family companies.
Clive's latest position before retirement was as Managing Director in the Anglophone Private Clients Department of Union Bancaire Privée, UBP SA, based in Geneva. He was responsible for wealth management services provided to a small number of wealthy English and French speaking families.
Clive continues to remain very active in the world of wealth, with a strong focus on Private Equity, and direct Equity Investing via the global stock markets. His passion is the financial analysis of Balance Sheets, P&Ls, Cash Flow and business projections. Clive loves examining business opportunities, like Private Equity, and digging into the fundamentals of quoted companies to achieve a market beating performance.
Clive Thompson -
LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/clive-thompson-661997251/ Video - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L9aye4wQ8Ok