The Top Line The biopharma dealmaking landscape and what to expect in 2026
Dec 5, 2025
Arda Ural, EY's Americas life sciences leader and dealmaking expert, shares insights on the evolving biopharma landscape. He discusses the shift towards larger, low-risk acquisitions post-pandemic and highlights revitalized therapeutic areas driving deals, such as oncology and neurology. Ural addresses the Federal Trade Commission's scrutiny of mergers and the long-term impacts of NIH funding cuts on innovation. He also emphasizes the rapid rise of AI in biopharma R&D and China's emergence as an innovation powerhouse, shaping future dealmaking.
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Normalization Means Bigger, Later-Stage Deals
- Dealmaking normalized after pandemic disruption with fewer but larger, later-stage deals.
- Buyers prefer de-risked assets to plug a roughly $300B revenue gap from patent expirations.
Uncertainty Drove The Pause — Then It Eased
- Multiple policy and economic uncertainties drove the earlier deal pause, including tariffs, Fed moves, and regulatory questions.
- Calmer newsflow and clearer impacts helped valuations recover over the past 10 months.
Use Spin Activity As A Valuation Signal
- Watch carve-outs and spin activity as a signal of valuation confidence or uncertainty.
- Use low spin activity as an indicator that companies remain unsure about valuation levels.