Maggie Lake Talking Markets Episode 112: Time To Get Defensive? With Aahan Menon.
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Dec 3, 2025 Aahan Menon, founder of Prometheus Research and macro strategist, shares insights on navigating the current market landscape. He discusses the impact of weak US jobs data and worries around AI spending on stock performance. Aahan explores growth versus liquidity dynamics and offers unconventional investment recommendations, including a focus on nominal bonds, TIPS, gold, and commodities. He also touches on the implications of Japan's bond moves and the unique value opportunity in UK equities, making a case for strategic reallocations in today's volatile environment.
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Equities Look Rich, Not Doomed
- Aahan Menon sees U.S. equity valuations as stretched and harder to find value in broad indexes.
- He expects a cool-off rather than a crash and favors tactical positioning over outright shorting.
Growth Fine, Liquidity Not Broken
- Growth appears okay but lopsided toward AI CapEx, making acceleration harder.
- Liquidity indicators like SOFR show seasonality and, when aggregated, do not signal a broken financial system.
Tactically Reduce Equity Exposure
- If equities seem expensive, Aahan recommends tactical shorts or lower equity beta for fast-moving allocators.
- He suggests waiting for a 5–10% pullback to become more constructive on equities.