The podcast discusses the dark side of optimism bias, exploring its impact on unfavorable career events, entitlement, and lack of preparation. Practical exercises to combat optimism bias are suggested, along with the use of probability trees for decision-making. The speakers also emphasize the importance of updating probability estimates and avoiding confirmation bias.
The optimism bias hinders our ability to prepare for potential challenges in our careers.
Favorability in our careers is highly subjective and should not be categorized as solely good or bad events.
Deep dives
The Optimism Bias and Its Impact on Career Events
The podcast discusses the concept of the optimism bias and its influence on how we perceive events in our careers. The optimism bias refers to the tendency to believe that things will go favorably for us, even when evidence suggests otherwise. The podcast highlights that many common career events, such as not getting a promotion or experiencing a layoff, are considered unfavorable. However, the perception of favorability is subjective and differs from person to person. The host emphasizes that the optimism bias can be detrimental as it leads us to believe that unfavorable events shouldn't happen to us, hindering our ability to prepare for potential challenges. In order to combat the optimism bias, the podcast suggests practical exercises like keeping a risk log to acknowledge the risks associated with decisions and adopting a probability tree technique to assess the likelihood of different outcomes.
Recognizing the Subjectivity of Favorability
This segment delves into the subjectivity surrounding favorability in our careers. While some events, like those that pose existential threats, are universally considered unfavorable, most day-to-day career events are relatively subjective. The podcast illustrates this by comparing the unfavorability of not getting food for days with not receiving a promotion. It explains that even though a promotion may seem favorable, it can lead to increased stress, reduced happiness, and less free time. The podcast underscores that favorability is relative to each individual and cautions against the binary categorization of events as solely good or bad.
Practical Techniques for Countering the Optimism Bias
This part offers two practical exercises to help counter the effects of the optimism bias. The first exercise is a risk log, where individuals assess the risks associated with important decisions or their current roles in the workplace. By consciously considering the risks involved, people become more aware of the potential downsides and are better prepared to handle them. The second exercise involves creating a probability tree for major decisions or outcomes. This technique encourages individuals to assign statistical likelihoods to different outcomes and critically evaluate their beliefs and the evidence supporting them. The podcast cautions against seeking evidence solely to confirm preconceived beliefs, advising listeners to gather evidence before assigning probabilities. By engaging in these exercises, listeners can challenge their optimism bias and make more informed decisions.
Most people believe good things will happen by default. Not to be the bearer of bad news, but there's a downside to this endless optimism. You cannot will good things to happen, and when you don't prepare for adverse events, you won't be ready when they inevitably occur.
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