The Synopsis Dialogue. The Math Behind SpaceX's $1.5T Valuation
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Jan 15, 2026 Dive into the fascinating world of SpaceX, exploring its unique advantages in vertical integration and cost management. Discover the competitive landscape of launch services, with insights on rivals like Rocket Lab and Blue Origin. Uncover Starlink's potential with its ambitious satellite plans and discuss the profitability challenges ahead. Analyze how the valuation of $1.5 trillion was reverse-engineered, considering revenue targets and market multiples. Finally, enjoy light banter as hosts wrap up with key takeaways on risks and opportunities.
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Shift4 Uses Acquisitions To Capture Processing Revenue
- Drew compared Shift4's acquisition-driven strategy to Constellation Software as a mental model.
- He described how Shift4 buys gateway tech and compels customers to move processing revenue in-house.
Vertical Integration Drives Launch Cost Edge
- SpaceX built vertically by making many components itself, which created large cost advantages versus legacy contractors.
- Reusable rockets and in-house engineering let them cut launch costs dramatically, improving margins.
Starlink Already Posts High Gross Margins
- Starlink shows very high gross margins today based on low per-satellite costs and amortized launch expense.
- With ~9,000 satellites and ~$13B revenue, Drew estimates roughly 75% gross margins before operating costs.