212. Heat Pumps rise again - Jan26

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Jan 19, 2026

In this engaging discussion, Paul Kenny, the Director General of the European Heat Pump Association, shares insights on the pivotal role of heat pumps in Europe’s strategy to reduce emissions. He reveals why countries like Scandinavia lead the charge in adoption while others lag. Paul also highlights the rapidly rising industrial heat pump market, addressing issues such as high upfront costs and the need for qualified installers. Excitingly, he discusses advancements in smart controls and the potential for heat pumps in electric vehicles and data centers, amid a growing market outlook.

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INSIGHT

Europe's 2030 Heat Pump Gap

The EU targets 60 million heat pumps by 2030 and had 30 million installed by end-2025.
That pace is strong but still leaves a large deployment gap to close in the next five years.

INSIGHT

2022 Spike Was Temporary, Markets Normalised

The 2022 spike followed the Ukraine war and gas price shock, driving rapid heat pump orders.
Inventories and falling gas prices caused a washout in 2023–24, with growth returning in 2025.

ADVICE

Shift Taxation Toward Gas Costs

Governments should align taxation to make electricity cheaper relative to gas to encourage heat pumps.
Shifting levies from electricity onto gas improves competitiveness, security, and decarbonisation incentives.

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Heat pumps sit at the heart of Europe’s strategy to cut emissions and reduce dependence on imported gas. Under the EU’s REPowerEU plan, the bloc is targeting 60 million heat pumps by 2030. By the end of 2025, almost 30 million units were already installed — progress, but still only halfway to the goal.

Gerard and Laurent are joined by Paul Kenny, Director General of the European Heat Pump Association (EHPA), to unpack why adoption has surged in countries such as Japan, Scandinavia and parts of the US, while many European markets continue to lag.

After a strong year in 2022, European heat pump sales slowed in 2023 and 2024 amid high upfront costs, a shortage of qualified installers, weaker policy support and an unfavourable price relationship between gas and electricity. Paul explains why confidence is returning in 2025, with 1m heat pumps sold across 13 European countries in the first half of 2025, a 9% increase on 2024.

We also look beyond residential heating to the rapid rise of industrial heat pumps, which could become a major decarbonisation tool for sectors requiring heat below 200°C, including food processing and pharmaceuticals. The conversation explores how heat pumps can add flexibility to the power system, in some cases reducing the need for battery storage, and why data centre heat management is emerging as a key new application.

As the leading voice of Europe’s heat pump industry, EHPA is working to make heat pumps the preferred technology for sustainable heating and cooling — strengthening Europe’s competitiveness, resilience and energy security in the process.

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At Redefining Energy, we are excited to be part of International Energy Week, where some of the biggest names in global energy come together for a packed agenda tackling the ideas, technologies, and policies shaping the future. ENGIE's CEO Catherine MacGregor will be speaking, as well as IEA Executive Director Dr Fatih Birol and Shell's CEO Wael Sawan.

Join us there and get 20% off your ticket with the promo code REIEWEEK20. https://www.ieweek.co.uk/

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Finally, Gerard and Laurent are invited by Jan Rosenow, professor of energy and climate policy at Oxford university and an energy policy expert, for a live session at Oriel College in Oxford on 25/2/26.