Wall Street Breakfast Three forces that defined 2025
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Dec 26, 2025 Jack Bowman, founder of Bowman Capital Management and a keen market commentator, dives into the current economic landscape. He discusses the surprising drop in consumer sentiment alongside rising inflation expectations. The conversation heats up around massive AI CapEx investments by tech giants like Meta and Amazon. Bowman also unpacks the implications of tariff actions and the ongoing trade truce regarding China. Finally, he offers a bullish outlook for the S&P 500, predicting a significant increase by 2026.
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Sentiment Vs. Data Divergence
- Consumer sentiment is disconnected from headline economic data and sits at an all-time low.
- Regional inflation experiences vary widely, fueling differing perceptions of the economy.
Inflation Expectations Remain Elevated
- Year-ahead inflation expectations eased but remain above earlier 2025 levels, showing persistent concern.
- Sentiment gains were mostly among lower-income consumers while higher-income views stayed steady.
Overreacting To Tariff Announcements
- Jack Bowman recalls the market reaction to April 2, 2025, calling it the most watched day in recent market history.
- He admits he initially overreacted to tariff announcements and later tempered his outlook.