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US Manufacturing Renaissance?
- The decline of US manufacturing started declining in the 1970s and accelerated after 2000.
- Recent trends and increased domestic orders suggest a potential manufacturing resurgence, particularly among small businesses.
Conditions for a Fed Pause
- For the Fed to not hike rates in July, payroll prints would need to be below 100,000.
- A downside surprise in CPI is also needed alongside the weak payroll data.
US Labor Market Disparity
- The US labor market shows disparity, with some groups experiencing 2% unemployment while others face 7%.
- The gap between high and low unemployment rates persists, despite improvements across different demographics since the pandemic.