
Macroscopic Podcast Michael Howell: FED's hidden QE, REPO blowout and the U.S.-China LIQUIDITY war
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Nov 8, 2025 Michael Howell, a macro strategist and liquidity expert, dives into the intricacies of the repo market and the Fed's hidden QE strategies. He discusses why liquidity is critical for the financial system and the looming refinancing risks from 2025 to 2028. Howell highlights the operational dynamics of Treasury QE and the rising competition between the U.S. and China over collateral and gold. With China devaluing its yuan and increasing gold reserves, he outlines the potential bifurcation in global liquidity systems, urging investors to strategically position their assets.
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Repo Stress Signals Refinancing Risk
- Liquidity is the lifeblood of modern finance and repo stress signals refinancing risk.
- Repo market blowouts can cascade into failures if liquidity isn't restored quickly.
Debt-Liquidity Paradox Drives Crises
- Debt and liquidity form a fragile circular dependency that drives instability.
- High debt-to-liquidity ratios historically precede refinancing crises.
SOFR Spread Reveals Hidden Tightness
- SOFR trading above Fed funds shows collateralized funding shortages.
- Elevated SOFR spreads mean market pricing implies higher effective rates than the Fed target.

