The Markets

Are More Rate Cuts Coming?

7 snips
Dec 12, 2025
Josh Schiffrin, Chief Strategy Officer at Goldman Sachs, dives into the recent Federal Reserve policy changes with Chris Hussey. They discuss the implications of the latest rate cut and how labor market conditions influenced it. Josh highlights key upcoming labor data to watch and predicts an intriguing trade opportunity with the yield curve steepening. He also shares a cautiously optimistic outlook on equities while acknowledging potential AI risks. Plus, he lightens the mood with thoughts on the Knicks and trading for Giannis!
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INSIGHT

Powell Worried About The Labor Market

  • Josh Schiffrin says Chair Powell emphasized labor-market concerns and that the bar for further cuts may be lower than expected.
  • Schiffrin expects the federal funds rate to fall to 3% or below at some point in 2026.
INSIGHT

Dissent Didn't Change The Outlook

  • Josh notes dissent on the committee included two formal dissents and several soft dissents but saw broad support for the cut.
  • He views the dissents as not materially changing the policy outlook for next year.
ADVICE

Track The Unemployment Rate Next

  • Watch upcoming labor-market reports closely, especially the unemployment rate from the household survey.
  • Use those reports to reassess Fed cut probabilities ahead of the January meeting.
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