A Void Of Government Data

Oct 3, 2025

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I’d iike to invite you to learn more about an exciting opportunity located in Bradenton Florida. Bradenton is next to Sarasota for those of you who are familiar with Florida. This market has an industrial moratorium that is driving one asset class to new heights, specifically light industrial. This 35 are property, right in the middle of Bradenton has an existing Charter School on 11 of those acres and 24 acres of land that we are developing. We are hosting a webinar on Wednesday October 8 at 7PM Eastern time. This opportunity is only open to accredited investors residing in the US in compliance with SEC regulations. To learn more, click on the link in the show notes and we will see you on Wednesday evening at 7PM.

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On today’s show we are looking at the continuing signs of weakness in the US economy. Of course with the government shut down , there are no numbers coming out of the BEA, or the BLS. Today would have been the monthly jobs report which consists of two reports. There is the headline employment report, sometimes called the establishment survey and the household survey. The employment report made headlines in a significant way when the numbers for the past year were revised down ward by over 900,000 jobs.

The financial markets have come to rely on these reports when it comes to bidding on interest rate futures. The theory is that if the economy is strong and employment is strong, then the Fed will put more emphasis on suppressing demand by raising the cost of capital. This is the so-called hawkish stance where fighting inflation takes centre stage. If the economy is weak and jobs are disappearing, then the Fed in theory should take a more stimulative approach to reduce the cost of capital and encourage hiring. This was the stance in the last FOMC meeting which resulted in a 0.25% rate cut.

So we have no data coming out and the market doesn’t really know what to do. But there is data coming from private sources that are well respected.

Payroll processing company ADP produces are regular report based on the aggregated and anonymized payroll data of more than 26 million U.S. employees. This week’s report showed that the US economy shed 32000 in the month of September. ADP gathers their data weekly.

We can confidently predict another 0.25% rate cut at the next FOMC meeting at the end of October and then a further rate cut at the December meeting.

For those of us in real estate, this is good news. It means those variable rate loans that are indexed to SOFR will see a reduction of 0.5% before the end of the year.

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