S&P Global Commodity Insights' Francesco Di Salvo and editors discuss the impact of sanctions on Russian oil flows, including the rise in seaborne exports despite sanctions. Topics include changes in crude and product exports, price sentiment for Urals grade, and challenges faced by the G7 in controlling oil sales.
Russian crude exports rose despite sanctions, with a shift towards India and China markets.
Euro's prices rose due to tight global sour crude supply, challenges in controlling Russian values.
Deep dives
Russian Crude Export Trend and Market Shifts
Despite efforts to restrict Russian crude exports, it has increased, reaching 100,000 barrels a day in June. The exports exceed pre-war levels, with a notable shift in destination markets from Europe to India and China. Ukraine's refining attacks have affected product flows, leading to a drop in Russian product exports.
Price Impact and European Sour Crude Supply
Euro's prices strengthened, averaging $68 per barrel in June, above the price cap. Tight global sour crude supply due to OPEC Plus cuts and suspension of Iraqi and Kurdish crudes affected European sour crude complex. Differentials to key benchmarks reduced, driven by challenges in controlling Russian crude and product values.
Challenges Faced by Russian Refineries and Product Exports
Russia's diesel exports to Europe ceased due to sanctions, shifting focus to crude exports. Drone attacks on refineries caused maintenance challenges and outages, impacting product exports. Refineries faced restart delays, affecting throughput and export levels, with a focus on ensuring domestic supply amidst profitability concerns.
The European Union’s decision on 24 June to target Russian shipping company Sovcomflot in its latest round of sanctions comes as ship tracking data shows a 5% monthly increase in seaborne crude oil exports through June. With changes to Russian crude and oil product exports in firm view for market participants, S&P Global Commodity Insights’ Francesco Di Salvo is joined by editors Robert Perkins, Elza Turner and Luke Stuart to discuss the latest flows and refinery news, as well as price sentiment for Russia’s flagship Urals export grade.