Britain's Growth Crisis: The Model That Explains Everything | Patrick Minford

Professor Patrick Minford explains why Britain has barely grown richer since 2007, with average incomes only 4% higher in real terms over 18 years—an unprecedented period of stagnation. Drawing on decades of research, Minford traces the UK’s economic transformation from the “sick man of Europe” in the 1970s through the Thatcher-era liberalization that saw Britain overtake France and Germany in living standards, to today’s return to high regulation and taxation. He presents a causal model showing how entrepreneurial incentives, tax rates, and labor market regulation drive growth—and warns that current government policies are doing precisely the opposite of what the evidence suggests works.

In this wide-ranging conversation with Kristian Niemietz, Minford discusses his econometric analysis of UK growth from 1970-2010, explains why rich entrepreneurs are crucial for economic dynamism, and critiques the wealth tax proposals that he argues would harm rather than help growth. He also addresses Brexit’s economic impact, compares Britain’s regulatory environment to France’s, and offers a stark assessment of Labour’s current economic policies. With over 50 years of experience analyzing UK economic policy, including collaboration with the IEA since the 1970s, Minford provides a provocative challenge to conventional thinking about inequality and growth.

This is essential viewing for anyone interested in understanding Britain’s productivity puzzle and the policy choices that could reverse decades of stagnation, or make it worse.

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