The Hard Shoulder Does Gerry Hutch have a chance at winning Paschal’s seat?
Nov 24, 2025
Seán Defoe, Newstalk's political correspondent, dissects Gerry 'The Monk' Hutch's anticipated run in the Dublin Central byelection. He recounts Hutch's impressive performance in the previous election and explains the unique challenges of a byelection versus a general election. Seán highlights Hutch's strategy to engage disengaged voters and the local dynamics that could influence turnout. He also discusses potential opponents, including a left-leaning candidate, and the looming media and legal scrutiny surrounding Hutch's campaign.
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Strong General Election Showing
- Gerry Hutch performed strongly in the previous general election, finishing close behind sitting candidates and attracting significant first-preference votes.
- By-elections are tougher because only one seat is available, so getting over 50% is a major barrier.
Low Turnout Creates Protest Opportunity
- Dublin Central has persistently low turnout and concentrated social deprivation, which creates appetite for protest voting and outsider candidates.
- Mobilising non-voters could decide a by-election where turnout typically falls and small voter blocs matter.
Opposition Dynamics Favor The Left
- The quality of opponents in a by-election can be lower than in a general election, but left-leaning parties combined hold around half the vote in Dublin Central.
- A Sinn Féin or other left candidate could consolidate that bloc and likely win the seat.