China's struggles, Bessent's overreach, Wall Street's climb and India's tariffs hit

Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing tackles the week’s biggest macro and market questions, including: what could Beijing do after more weak China data? Why tariffs aren’t showing up more in the US economy? How much have the latest inflation reports shifted the Fed’s rate-cut debate – and should the Treasury Secretary be taking shots at central banks?

Also: Chief Markets Economist John Higgins on why we’ve lifted our S&P 500 forecasts, the limits of valuation metrics, and the risks markets face from an unpredictable – and increasingly emboldened – president.

Plus: In a clip from our online Drop-In client briefing, Shilan Shah on what’s gone wrong in India-US relations and how 50% tariffs could hit India’s economy.

Analysis and events referenced in this episode:

CAP: Growth slows in Q2 despite resilient industry
In-person events: Fracturing in the age of Trump
S&P 500: onwards and upwards for this year and next
Drop-In: India in Trump’s firing line – What’s at stake for the economy and markets