Morning Wire Art of the Deal Meets Art of War
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Jun 8, 2025 Ben Jensen, Director of the CSIS Futures Lab and a senior fellow in Defense and Security, shares his insights on the current complexities of the Ukraine war. He discusses Ukraine's recent tactical success and its implications for Russia’s military strategy. The conversation delves into the nuances of peace negotiations, contrasting public and private talks among leaders. Jensen also examines how the conflict in Ukraine impacts China's strategic planning regarding Taiwan, highlighting global interconnections in conflict resolution.
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Ukraine's Impactful Drone Strike
- Ukraine's drone strike eliminated roughly 30% of Russia's strategic bomber fleet, reducing potential missile attacks.
- Despite this, Russia is unlikely to escalate to nuclear weapons, preferring continued missile and drone strikes.
Russia Sustains War Through Allies
- Russia's war capacity is sustained by authoritarian allies like China and Iran despite economic and military stress.
- Their strategy involves overwhelming manpower assaults and increased drone attacks, not precision military tactics.
Value Private Negotiations
- Don't judge peace talks solely by public negotiations; private diplomacy can be more effective.
- Use shuttle diplomacy and third-party intermediaries to advance sensitive discussions discreetly.