Uncertainty is reshaping decision-making in today's economy. Recent changes in tariff policies are causing distress for farmers and impacting Wall Street. The disbandment of key advisory committees raises concerns about the reliability of economic data. Declining Treasury yields affect mortgage rates and highlight worries about growth. Amid these challenges, businesses are finding innovative ways to adapt, especially in the services sector, as they navigate a landscape filled with both risks and opportunities.
The dissolution of key advisory committees has raised significant concerns about the reliability and accuracy of U.S. economic data.
Conflicting survey results from the services sector reflect uncertainty in economic growth and highlight the impacts of recent tariff changes on businesses.
Deep dives
Disbanding Key Economic Committees
The Commerce Department's decision to disband two advisory committees, the Federal Economic Statistics Advisory Committee and the Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee, raises concerns about the quality of U.S. economic data. These groups provided essential expert insights to help shape economic measurement methodologies and ensured transparency with the public, according to former committee members. The committees had served for decades, and their removal is viewed as a detrimental step by economists who believe it will compromise the accuracy of data on vital economic indicators like GDP, jobs, and inflation. Critics argue that without expert guidance, the government may struggle to produce reliable economic statistics, impacting business decisions and policymaking.
Impact of Tariffs on Farmers
Recent tariff changes announced by President Trump are causing distress among American farmers, particularly those growing corn and soybeans. Farmers like April Hemmings express skepticism about these tariffs, citing their potentially detrimental effects on their livelihoods, with many worried about diminished consumer demand and increased production costs. The complexity of the agricultural market means that abrupt changes can lead to long-term negative consequences, as many farmers rely heavily on exports that are at risk. Moreover, the uncertainty surrounding these tariffs adds to the challenges farmers face, leading to a sense of unease within the agricultural community.
Contradictory Data on Economic Growth
Recent surveys on the services sector present conflicting insights into the state of economic growth in the U.S., highlighting discrepancies between different data sources. The Institute for Supply Management reported growth, while S&P Global indicated the weakest output growth since late 2023, raising questions about the reliability of monthly data updates. Factors contributing to these conflicting reports include differences in survey timing and the types of respondents involved, with one capturing a broad view and the other being more service-oriented. The potential impact of tariffs on the economy was a common concern within both surveys, suggesting that future reports may provide clearer insights as economic conditions evolve.
Ask an economist what’s driving decision-making right now, and the answer may well be “uncertainty.” In this episode, the unpredictable environment fuels a range of change: The labor market softens, surveys of the service sector point in opposite directions and Treasury yields sink. Plus, the Commerce Department just dissolved two expert advisory groups, putting the trustworthiness of future federal data into question.
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