Ed Carr, the Deputy Editor of The Economist, shares his insights on the tumultuous global elections of 2024. He discusses the surprising election results, even in autocratic regimes, and a noteworthy shift away from identity politics, especially in the U.S. Carr highlights promising democratic victories in India and South Africa amidst political chaos. Looking forward, he examines upcoming elections in Germany, challenges for Trudeau in Canada, and urban migration trends in China towards smaller cities, ultimately reshaping cultural and economic landscapes.
The 2024 elections marked a significant shift from identity-based politics to class-focused dynamics, particularly affecting the Democratic Party's voter demographics.
China's smaller cities are emerging as attractive alternatives for young professionals, driving local economic revitalization despite concerns of future urban challenges.
Deep dives
Democratic Participation and Election Outcomes
In 2024, a record 4 billion people across 76 countries participated in democratic elections, indicating a significant increase in civic engagement. This year's elections were marked by unexpected results, particularly in the United States, where Donald Trump's win emphasized the shift away from identity-based politics. Analysts noted that the Democratic Party experienced substantial vote share losses among African American and Hispanic demographics, suggesting a transition towards more class-focused political dynamics. Despite the challenges faced by autocratic regimes, the elections demonstrated that voters are eager for change and capable of reshaping their political landscapes.
Changing Political Landscape in Europe
The political climate in Europe has seen a noticeable shift away from centrist, technocratic governance, with the rise of right-wing populist movements becoming increasingly apparent. Key elections highlighted this fragmentation, particularly in Germany and France, where traditional parties faced significant challenges. Compounding this instability, the collapse of certain governments has led to chaotic political environments, exemplified by France's struggles to pass a budget. As election processes evolve, the fragmentation of centrist parties has resulted in a new polarization grounded in class and economic issues rather than identity politics.
The Evolution of China's Urban Landscape
China's largest cities are losing their allure, as young people are beginning to seek opportunities in smaller cities due to rising living costs and challenging work-life conditions in megacities. These smaller cities, such as Changsha and Nanjing, offer better affordability along with robust infrastructure, making them attractive destinations for job-seeking graduates. The influx of young talent is revitalizing local economies and driving innovation, particularly in technology sectors focused on electric vehicles and artificial intelligence. While there is concern that these smaller cities may experience similar challenges as the larger urban centers, their more relaxed atmosphere and emerging cultural industries suggest a different trajectory.
In some places, votes resulted in political chaos; in others they showed a promising shift away from identity politics. Our deputy editor looks back on 2024’s pile of polls. Looking ahead, we examine the Chinese cities that will come into their own in 2025 (11:36). And the changing economics of Poland’s traditional “milk bars” (16:29).