Former NATO supreme allied commander and retired four-star admiral James Stavridis discusses Washington's approach to conflicts in the Middle East and the effectiveness of recent measures. Topics include a tougher response to Tehran, the Axis of resistance, proposals of the new Biden Doctrine, Iran's desires in the Middle East, and US-China relations.
The US is deploying both hard and soft power to influence the Middle East conflict, including negotiating for the release of Israeli hostages and launching reprisal attacks on Iran-backed groups.
Countering Iran's efforts to expand its influence requires recognizing its overarching strategy and putting pressure on Tehran directly, while also addressing individual conflicts and tensions in the region.
Deep dives
US deployment in the Middle East
The White House has increased its deployment of both hard and soft power to influence the conflict in the Middle East. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken's visit to Israel aims to further negotiations for releasing Israeli hostages and pausing regional fighting. The US is also launching reprisal attacks on Iran-backed groups in the region. The effectiveness of these measures in calming the growing regional conflict remains uncertain, and the administration is faced with the challenge of handling multiple military and intelligence threats in various parts of the world simultaneously.
Iran's push for influence
The Iranian government maintains a broad effort to expand its influence throughout the Middle East and beyond. Iran's geopolitical, economic, and religious motivations drive its push for greater influence and support for proxy groups like the Houthis, Hamas, and Hezbollah. While attacks on these groups may strengthen their narrative of the United States as a colonizing force, countering Iran's efforts requires putting pressure on Tehran directly. The US must recognize and address Iran's overarching strategy to effectively address individual conflicts and tensions in the region.
US military capabilities against Iran
The United States possesses sufficient military assets in the Middle East to respond to potential threats posed by Iran. With a reasonable fleet and strong Air Force presence in the region, the US has the ability to converge multiple aircraft carriers, maintain capable air assets, and leverage offensive cyber capabilities. While the extent to which these military capabilities can deter Iran's actions remains uncertain, tactical strikes that degrade the operational capabilities of Iran-backed groups can have a factual impact. The strategic outcome and the potential for further escalation or de-escalation in the region are still unknown.
US influence on Israeli policy and Arab-Israeli reconciliation
The United States wields significant but not determinative influence over Israeli policy and the prospects for Arab-Israeli reconciliation. The strong military, intelligence, and economic ties between the US and Israel, along with deep diplomatic relations between Arab nations and Israel, provide levers of influence. While American support is instrumental in strengthening Israel's position, the US cannot dictate Israeli actions or the broader peace process. The leverage the US has over Israel needs to be managed carefully to balance conflicting interests and maintain stability in the region.
James Stavridis, a former NATO supreme allied commander and retired four-star admiral, sits down with Ravi Agrawal to share his insight on how Washington is navigating conflicts across two continents.