Newshour Ecuadoreans vote on foreign military bases
8 snips
Nov 16, 2025 
Guillaume Long, former Ecuadorian foreign minister and senior fellow at the Center for Economic and Policy Research, shares insights on Ecuador's referendum regarding foreign military bases. He highlights the historical context of US bases and their ineffective correlation with improved security amid rising violence. Long explains the implications of a potential 'no' vote for US-Ecuador relations and argues for strengthening domestic institutions instead. Supporters of the bases seek immediate security solutions, reflecting broader tensions in Ecuador's political landscape.
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Referendum Is A Multi-Question Popularity Test
- Ecuador's referendum bundles security, constitution change and congressional reform into separate yes/no questions.
- Voters can split answers, making the vote a nuanced test of President Daniel Noboa's popularity.
Past US Bases Didn't Clearly Improve Safety
- Guillaume Long argues historical data show no clear security benefit from past US bases in Ecuador.
- He notes homicide rates fell after the Manta base closed, so correlation with US presence is weak.
Violence Surge Is A Recent Domestic Trend
- Ecuador's homicide rate spiked sharply since 2018, reaching crisis levels by 2025.
- Long links the rise to domestic trends since 2019–2020 rather than to historical US military presence.
