The podcast discusses the escalating civil war in Sudan, fears of state collapse, and the involvement of outside actors. It explores the success of urban warfare in Sudan and the role of regional actors like UAE and Russia. The possibility of intervention and national security concerns are also examined. The neglected crisis in Sudan and the desires of the Sudanese people for a better life are highlighted.
The collapse of Sudan would have severe regional implications, exacerbating existing problems and putting strain on neighboring countries' resources.
The power struggle between Sudan's transitional government and the Rapid Support Forces, with external support from the UAE, Russia, and Egypt, is fueling the current conflict.
Diplomatic intervention and international peacekeeping forces are urgently needed to stabilize the situation and prevent further escalation, but resolving the conflict is complicated by divergent interests and the potential fragmentation of Sudan.
Deep dives
The Complexity of Sudan's Conflict
The podcast episode highlights the interconnectedness of global events and the potential ramifications of state collapse. It discusses how Sudan's instability would affect neighboring countries, exacerbating existing problems. The collapse of Sudan would lead to mass refugee displacement, putting pressure on already strained resources in Egypt. Other neighboring countries like Ethiopia, Kenya, and South Sudan are also facing their own political and economic challenges, making the region particularly vulnerable. The episode emphasizes the involvement of various external actors, such as the UAE, Russia, and Turkey, who support different factions in Sudan. It highlights the lack of a clear solution and the urgency for diplomatic intervention to prevent further escalation and stabilize the situation.
The Path to Sudan's Current Crisis
The episode provides a background on Sudan's history of dictatorship and conflict, starting from the rule of Omar al-Bashir in 1989. It highlights the previous civil wars in Sudan, including the war in Darfur and the conflict with South Sudan, as well as the role played by the Janjaweed militia. It explains how the transitional government, formed after the ousting of al-Bashir, led to tensions between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The episode describes the power struggle between General Abdullah Burhan, head of the SAF, and General Hameti, leader of the RSF, leading to the current conflict. It also mentions the involvement of external powers like the UAE, Russia, and Egypt in supporting different factions.
Challenges and Possible Resolutions
The episode acknowledges the difficulty of resolving the conflict and emphasizes the need for international intervention to prevent further destabilization. It discusses the potential options for peacekeeping forces, such as UN or African Union deployment, to help stabilize the situation and protect civilians. However, it highlights the challenges of implementing a ceasefire and a transitional government due to the divergent interests of the involved parties. The episode also mentions the importance of supporting civilian groups and empowering them in the transition towards stability. Finally, it warns against the potential fragmentation of Sudan and the cascading effect on the entire region, urging swift diplomatic action to prevent further escalation.
Climate change and growing populations exacerbate conflict
The podcast episode explores two major factors contributing to the conflict in Sudan. The first is climate change, which has made the region more inhospitable and led to food insecurity and internal migration. The second factor is the rapidly growing populations in these countries, straining resources and services. These factors have increased pressure on communities, fractured traditions, and added complexity to resolving the conflict.
Key actors and their motivations in the conflict
The podcast discusses the involvement of various actors in the Sudanese conflict and their motivations. The UAE is primarily interested in maintaining its financial partnership with the RSF and expanding its regional power. Russia sees Sudan as a strategic location for gaining naval port access and elevating its global presence. Egypt supports the Sudanese armed forces in order to maintain military government and counter Gulf actors. The conflict also involves Libya, with its Benghazi-based government supporting the RSF, and other regional countries like Iran and Saudi Arabia. However, international support and peace initiatives have been divided, making resolution challenging.
Sudan is entangled in a rapidly escalating civil war, marked by widespread protests, violent clashes, and an alarming surge in refugees fleeing the turmoil. Amidst this chaos, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) swift advances are now intensifying fears of a potential state collapse, one that would likely plunge the region into chaos. With a fragmented government and military embroiled in enforcing their contentious autocratic rule, Sudan's path to peace appears increasingly precarious. So why are more and more outside actors getting involved here? What happens if the state does collapse, and who is supplying these forces with the means to wage this war? We ask our panel of experts. On the panel this week: - Will Brown (CSIS) - Joe Siegle (ACSS) - Will Carter (Norwegian Refugee Council) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 07:03 PART 2 - 29:20 PART 3 - 49:16 Outro - 1:02:37 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepod For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/
