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Apollo's June 2025 Crisis Prediction
- Apollo Group predicts a significant supply shock by June 2025, causing empty shelves similar to 2020 pandemic disruptions.
- Tariff hikes on Chinese goods severely reduce imports, creating shortages and impacting small and mid-sized businesses most.
Small Business Vulnerability
- Small and mid-sized businesses will suffer bankruptcies due to supply shocks, risking widespread job layoffs.
- Megacorporations may survive profit hits but don't employ the majority of workers compared to smaller businesses.
Demand Shock Amplifies Recession
- Inventory levels rose before tariffs, indicating demand issues with consumers rather than only businesses stockpiling.
- Layoffs and supply-demand shocks combine, causing sharp drops in earnings and economic confidence.