Finding the Floor: Can the U.S. and China Stabilize Their Relationship?
Oct 5, 2023
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Experts Evan Medeiros, Thomas Shugart, and Emily Weinstein discuss the current state of U.S.-Chinese relations, the impact of Taiwan's elections, and the potential for conflict. They explore lessons China may learn from the invasion of Ukraine, analyze the military angle in the Russian election, and discuss efforts to curb China's semiconductor industry. The upcoming U.S. election's impact on the relationship is also considered.
The Biden administration is focused on rebuilding American competitiveness and strengthening alliances to counterbalance Chinese power in order to manage long-term tough competition.
The risk of immediate military conflict between the US and China is relatively low, but the Chinese leadership's aim to be ready for military action against Taiwan by 2027 poses a significant concern.
Deep dives
Overview of US-China Relationship
The relationship between the US and China is facing structural forces for competition and dwindling sources of stability. Both countries are adopting more competitive strategies towards each other, leading to a deterioration in the relationship. The Biden administration recognizes this and is focused on rebuilding American competitiveness and strengthening alliances to counterbalance Chinese power. The administration aims to manage the long-term tough competition and navigate difficult and sensitive issues that divide the two countries.
Diplomatic Outreach and Cyclical Trends
Both the US and China are engaging in diplomatic outreach to stabilize the relationship and stem a further decline. Opening up new dialogue channels, having top officials meet, and culminating in Xi Jinping's visit to the US for the APEC summit are all part of the effort to achieve stability. While reciprocity from China may not be evident, the goal is to stabilize the relationship due to domestic challenges faced by both countries. The success of this diplomatic push depends on bilateral interactions and the outcome of the upcoming election in Taiwan.
Risk of Military Conflict
In the short term, the risk of immediate military conflict between the US and China is relatively low. However, the long-term aim of the Chinese leadership to be ready for military action against Taiwan by 2027 poses a significant concern. The outcome of the election in Taiwan could impact Beijing's perception, and if the ruling party wins, it may lead to increased coercion from China. The US and international community would be forced to respond, potentially sparking a cross-strait crisis.
Effectiveness of Export Controls on Semiconductors
The effectiveness of US export controls on semiconductors in curtailing China's semiconductor industry remains uncertain. Export controls can impose costs, slow down progress, and force creative workarounds, but their long-term impact depends on adaptation as technology advances. There is concern that export controls may inadvertently create vulnerabilities, such as China becoming the dominant producer of legacy chips. Additionally, the economic presence and reliance on China by US tech companies may limit the effectiveness of these controls.
Nick sat down with Evan Medeiros, Thomas Shugart and Emily Weinstein to take stock of where U.S.-Chinese relations stand today and where they might be going. Can President Biden’s diplomatic push pay off? How will Taiwan’s elections and Beijing’s internal shakeup change the equation? What lessons is President Xi Jinping actually learning from the invasion of Ukraine? And can the U.S. and China ultimately find a stable floor for their bilateral relationship or are they headed toward conflict?
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